Business in the Week Ahead in India: Fed Interest Rate Decision, India Manufacturing PMI, Loan Growth etc. in Focus.

Business in the Week Ahead:- Inflation trajectory in India could be influenced by weather and geopolitics, with adverse weather conditions and geopolitical concerns potentially causing a spike in oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a key route for India’s oil and LNG imports, holds significant potential for such a spike.

Food inflation remains high, affecting India’s status as the fastest-growing large economy. The future of this growth depends on overlapping food price shocks before a monsoon. Corporate earnings for the March quarter are gaining excitement, while elections are being influenced by rising temperatures and heatwaves.

As India votes, we provide insights into what to anticipate in the upcoming week.

Monday – April 29

Eurozone Economic Sentiment: The economic sentiment indicator in the Euro Zone firmed up to a 3-month high of 96.3 in March, an uptick from February’s revised 95.5 and in line with market expectations.
Earnings:- Trent, UltraTech Cement

Tuesday – April 30

China NBS Manufacturing PMI: The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 a month earlier, topping market forecasts of 49.9. It’s the first growth in factory activity in 6 months, the sharpest for a year, as Beijing tries hard to press the pedal hard on growth. Will the April print, due on Tuesday, confirm the momentum?

Earnings:- Adani Energy Sol, Adani Total Gas, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance, Havells India, Indus Towers, IOCL

Wednesday – May 01

Fed Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds rate steady at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5 percent for the fifth straight meeting in March, in line with market expectations. With labour market staying tight, what will be the central bank’s call this time? Policymakers are seen to cut interest rates three times this year, similar to the quarterly forecasts in December.

Infrastructure Output: Infrastructure output in India expanded 6.7percent year-on-year in February, following an upwardly revised 4.1percent rise in January. The March numbers are on the way.

Earnings: Adani Power, Ambuja Cements

Thursday– May 02

India Manufacturing PMI: The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI came in at 59.1 in April, preliminary figures showed. Still, the latest reading signalled the fastest growth in factory activity since February 2008 as output and new orders continued to expand at a brisk pace. Output rose further, buoyed by strong demand. The final April figure is in the works.

Bank of Japan Minutes: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its key short-term policy interest rate to around 0percent to 0.1 percent from -0.1 percent in March. With this move, in line with market expectations, it came out of its eight years of negative interest rates. This is the first interest rate hike since 2007 as inflation had exceeded the central bank’s 2percent target in over a year. The minutes, due on Thursday, are going to put the spotlight on what really transpired during the meeting.

US Initial Jobless Claims: The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 5,000 to 207,000 in the week to April 20, the lowest in two months, and below market expectations of 214,000. This unexpected drop lends its weight to the notion of a tight labour market, giving more space to the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. The claims for the week through April 27 are on the cards.

Earnings: Adani Ports, Coal India, Dabur India, Federal Bank

Friday – May 03

Bank Loan Growth: The value of outstanding loans in India grew 19.9 percent year-on-year in the fortnight to April 5. Loan growth in India averaged 11.67 percent from 2012 until 2024, hitting an all-time high of 20.80 percent in December 2023 and a record low of 4.10 percent in March 2017. The next set of datapoints is slated for Friday.

Earnings: Titan Company

Saturday – May 04

Earnings: Kotak Mahindra Bank

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