Business in the Week Ahead:- India’s inflation and manufacturing data, UK and Euro area inflation data, earnings season commences, and 2024 Lok Sabha Elections phase begins.
The Indian benchmark, the Nifty, has surpassed year-end targets in the first month of the fiscal year, driven by positive economic indicators and strong corporate earnings. However, the market outlook is uncertain, with Chief Investment Strategist V K Vijayakumar predicting a rate cut in June.
US stocks closed on a high note, while the European Central Bank paused interest rates but said slowing inflation could lead to easing monetary policy. Asian markets showed mixed signs, with investors assessing economic data from Singapore and South Korea. The 7-phase elections for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls begin on April 19.
Monday – April 15
India’s wholesale prices increased by 0.20% YoY in February 2024, easing from a 0.27% rise in the previous month, with data for March awaited.
India’s wholesale manufacturing prices fell 1.27% YoY in February 2024, a slight decrease from the previous month’s 1.13% decrease. March’s figures are expected to be announced.
Euro Area industrial production fell 6.7% YoY in January 2024, a significant drop from the revised 0.2% growth in December 2023, with February’s figures awaited.
India’s merchandise trade deficit increased to $18.7 billion in February 2024, while exports soared 11.9% YoY to $41.4 billion, driven by drug, pharmaceutical, engineering, and electrical goods sales.
US retail sales increased by 0.6% in February 2024, despite a revised 1.1% fall in January and below market expectations of a 0.8% gain.
Tuesday – April 16
China GDP Growth Rate: The Chinese economy expanded 5.2% yoy in Q4 of 2023, faster than a 4.9% growth in Q3. The data for Q1FY25 is awaited.
China Industrial Production: China’s industrial production expanded by 7.0% year-on-year in January-February 2024 combined, faster than a 6.8% growth in December 2023 and beating market forecasts of 5%. The figures for the month of march is expected.
US Manufacturing Production: US manufacturing production decreased 0.65 percent in February of 2024 over the same month in the previous year, following a 1.1 percent drop in January. The data for March is awaited.
Earnings:- Crisil
Wednesday – April 17
UK Inflation Rate: The United Kingdom’s inflation rate dropped to 3.4% year-on-year in February 2024, down from 4% recorded in both January ’24 and December ’23 and falling below the market expectation of 3.5%. The inflation rate for March is to announced.
Euro Area Inflation Rate: The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.4% year-on-year in March 2024, falling short of market expectations of 2.6%, a preliminary estimate showed. The final reading for the month of March will be declared.
Earnings: Hathway, ICICI Lombard Insurance, Tata Communication
Thursday – April 18
US Initial Jobless Claims: The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 11,000 to 211,000 in the week ending April 6th, and below market expectations of 215,000. The data for the week ending April 13 is awaited
Earnings: Bajaj Auto, HDFC Life Insurance
Friday – April 19
India Elections: The firstphase of the General Elections in India begins.
India Bank Loan Growth: The value of loans in India increased 20.2% year-on-year in the fortnight to March 22. The data for the fortnight ending on April 5 is awaited.India Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to $645.580 billion in March 29 from $642.630 billion in the previous week. Numbers for the week ending April 5 is to be declared.
India MPC Meeting Minutes: The Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark policy repo at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting in April 2024, as widely expected amid persistent price pressures.
Earnings: Jio Financial Services, Wipro