Commodity Snapshot
J.P. Morgan Commodities Research reported a 6% increase in open interest across global commodity markets, reaching $71 billion, a six-month high of $1.33 trillion. This was attributed to a surge in price and contract flows across crude oil and base metals. Inflows persisted across all trader types, reaching a seven-month high of $43 billion week-on-week.
Crude oil inflows reached $14 billion, the highest since September 2023, and the base metals market reached $15.6 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected Chinese activity. Oil prices reached multi-month highs due to Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil facilities.
However, prices have retreated due to a stronger dollar and markets eagerly await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. Brent crude and WTI fell 0.74% and $82.12/bbl, respectively.
Base metals markets saw a 13.4% increase in open interest value, primarily driven by copper, with Shanghai copper prices reaching a record high and London prices reaching an 11-month peak.
Recent Commodity Price Movements
Energy
Crude oil (CL1:COM) -0.80% to $82.07.
Natural Gas (NG1:COM) -0.77% to $1.73.
Metals
Palladium (XPDUSD:CUR) -0.85% to $982.43.
Platinum (XPTUSD:CUR) +0.04% to $894.89.
Gold (XAUUSD:CUR) -0.14% to $2,154.17.
Copper (HG1:COM) -1.13% to $4.01.
Agriculture
Corn (C_1:COM) -0.25% to $438.41.
Wheat (W_1:COM) -0.91% to $547.48.
Cotton (CT1:COM) -0.87% to $92.53.
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This could lead to consolidation and a range of 21700 – 22000. Bank Nifty closed the day negatively for the ninth consecutive session, finding support at the lower end of the rising channel and a daily lower Bollinger band at 45800.
The hourly momentum indicator has a positive crossover, indicating a buy signal, and a recovery to 46800 – 46950 over the next few trading sessions.
This could lead to consolidation and a range of 21700 – 22000. Bank Nifty closed the day negatively for the ninth consecutive session, finding support at the lower end of the rising channel and a daily lower Bollinger band at 45800.
The hourly momentum indicator has a positive crossover, indicating a buy signal, and a recovery to 46800 – 46950 over the next few trading sessions.
Spot gold was trading -0.3% lower at $2,176.89 an ounce as markets awaited the release of U.S. CPI data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy path. A hotter-than-expected reading could delay the central bank’s easing cycle. Low interest rates help bullion by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yielding asset. A mixed tone prevailed across commodity sectors, with China’s economic growth concerns affecting bulks and supply concerns supporting industrial metals. Commodity Snapshot Commodity Snapshot Commodity Snapshot
Natural gas and crude oil prices were trading in the green, while oil prices fell earlier due to persistent demand concerns in China. NS Trading president Hiroyuki Kikukawa said that concerns over weak demand in China outweighed the extension of supply cuts by OPEC+. Mixed US jobs data prompted some traders to adjust positions. However, losses will be capped by increased geopolitical risk, with the possibility of a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war and conflict expansion in Russia and its neighbors. Europe remains the most impacted region, as oil product shipments from Asia have fallen since January. OPEC+’s voluntary production cut agreement could tighten the market as demand recovers from its seasonal lull.
Natural gas and crude oil prices were trading in the green, while oil prices fell earlier due to persistent demand concerns in China. NS Trading president Hiroyuki Kikukawa said that concerns over weak demand in China outweighed the extension of supply cuts by OPEC+. Mixed US jobs data prompted some traders to adjust positions. However, losses will be capped by increased geopolitical risk, with the possibility of a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war and conflict expansion in Russia and its neighbors. Europe remains the most impacted region, as oil product shipments from Asia have fallen since January. OPEC+’s voluntary production cut agreement could tighten the market as demand recovers from its seasonal lull.
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