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HomeWeekly newsKey Events in the Week Ahead: Fed decision, earnings and US employment...

Key Events in the Week Ahead: Fed decision, earnings and US employment data highlight the releases and events

Key Events are the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, scheduled for May 1, will highlight economic releases and events for the trading week starting April 29.

Monday – April 29

Key Events on watch

US

10:30 AM ET                Dallas Fed Manufacturing for April

Earnings

  • Domino’s Pizza
  • Phillips
  • Paramount*
  • Logitech*

Global

  • German CPI. Estimate 0.6%
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI for April
  • China Non-NBS Manufacturing PMI for April

Tuesday – April 30

Chinese Manufacturing PMI

The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 50.3 from 50.8, while the Services PMI is expected to rise to 52.2 from 53.0. Despite volatility, recent positive sentiment and policy support from officials could boost market sentiment.

Eurozone CPI

Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected to rise to 2.4%, while Core CPI is expected to be 2.6%. The ECB’s June rate cut is expected, and the market expects three rate cuts this year.

US Q1 Employment Cost Index

The US Q1 Employment Cost Index is expected to rise to 1.0%, indicating a hawkish response from the market due to the Fed’s recent shift in stance, despite wage growth easing in the past two years.

Elevated wage growth and tight labor market can prolong inflation, potentially de-anchoring expectations and making it difficult to sustainably return to target.

US Consumer Confidence

US Consumer Confidence is expected to decrease in April to 104.0, according to The Conference Board’s Chief Economists. The trend is expected to be sideways, with no significant trend by income or age group. Consumer complaints are also decreasing, with a positive outlook on the employment situation.

Key Events on watch

US

  • US employment cost index for the first quarter (10 AM ET). 1.0% versus 0.9% last quarter
  • US consumer confidence (10 AM ET). Estimate 104.0 versus 104.7 last month
  • 7:45 AM ET                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Employment Cosi for Q1
  • 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Price M/m for February
  • 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20 city for February
  • 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for April
  • 4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings

  • PayPal
  • Lily
  • 3M
  • McDonald’s
  • Coca-Cola
  • Amazon *
  • AMD*
  • Super Micro Computers*
  • Starbucks*
  • Pinterest

Global

  • China PMI. Expectations 50.3 versus 50.8 last month
  • Canada GDP MoM (8:30 AM ET). Estimate 0.3% versus 0.6% last month.


Wednesday – May 01

New Zealand Q1 Labour Market report

The New Zealand Q1 Labour Market report predicts a 0.3% employment change, a rise in unemployment to 4.3%, and a 0.8% labour cost Q/Q. The RBNZ expects the first rate cut in 2025, with the market expecting the first move in August 2024.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 50.1 from 50.3, following a contraction in Q1 2024. The S&P Global PMI also returned to contraction, with bleak commentary and positive inflation news. The ISM report is crucial for market confirmation.

US Job Openings report

The US Job Openings report is expected to be 8.680M, marking the first major labor market report of the week, with a focus on hiring and quit rates, which fell below pre-pandemic trends.

Federal Reserve

The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 5.25-5.50%, possibly acknowledging a setback in the disinflationary impulse. The focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and QT taper updates. The market is pricing only one rate cut in 2024.

Key Events on watch

US

  • US ADP nonfarm employment change (8:15 AM ET). Estimate 180K versus 184K last month
  • US ISM manufacturing (10 AM ET). Estimate 50.0 versus 50.3 last month
  • US JOLTs job openings (10 AM ET). Estimate 8.68 million versus 8.76 million last month
  • Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2 PM ET). No change expected
  • Federal Reserve press conference (2:30 PM ET)
  • 7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, April-Final
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Earnings

  • Pfizer
  • CVS
  • MasterCard
  • Marriott
  • Qualcomm *
  • Carvana *

Global

  • New Zealand employment statistics (6:45 PM ET, Tuesday). Employment change 0.3% versus 0.4% last quarter. Unemployment rate 4.3% versus 4.0 present

Thursday – May 02

Switzerland’s CPI

Switzerland’s CPI M/M is expected to be 0.1%, with no consensus on the Y/Y measure. The market has already priced in rate cuts, potentially increasing the magnitude of cuts from 25 bps to 50 bps.

US Jobless Claims

US Jobless Claims are crucial weekly indicators of the labor market’s state, as a weakening market is more likely to lead to disinflation. Initial Claims are expected to be 212K this week, while Continuing Claims remain stable at 1800K.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • US initial jobless claims (8:30 AM ET). Estimate 210K versus 207K last week.
  • Bank of Canada’s Macklem speaks (8:45 AM ET)
  • 7:30 AM ET                  Challenger Layoffs for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for March
  • 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for March
  • 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for March
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Earnings

  • Peloton
  • Moderna
  • Apple *
  • Coinbas *
  • Block *
  • DraftKings *
  • Fortinet *

Global

  • Swiss CPI MoM (2:30 AM ET). Estimate 0.2% versus 0.0% last month.

Friday – May 03

US NFP

The US NFP report predicts 243K jobs added in April, unchanged from March’s 303K, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.8%. Average Hourly Earnings M/M is expected at 0.3%, with no consensus on the Y/Y figure. Expectations will be influenced by jobless claims, weakening hiring intentions, and wage growth.

US ISM Services PMI

The US ISM Services PMI missed expectations due to weak sub-indexes, particularly the prices component. The latest S&P Global US Services PMI also missed expectations, with layoff activity and inflation news.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • US jobs statistics (8:30 AM ET). Non-farm payroll estimate 250K versus 303K last month. Unemployment rate 3.8% versus 3.8% last month. Average hourly earnings of 0.3% versus 0.3% last month.
  • US ISM services PMI (10 AM ET). Estimate 52.0 versus 51.4 last month.
  • 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Composite, April
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings

Hersey

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