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HomeWeekly newsKey Events in the Week Ahead: Flash PMIs, the US Consumer Confidence,...

Key Events in the Week Ahead: Flash PMIs, the US Consumer Confidence, the RBA and SNB rate decisions and the US Jobless Claims highlight the releases and events.

Key Events shows  Flash PMIs, the US Consumer Confidence, the RBA and SNB rate decisions and the US Jobless Claims.

Monday – Sep 23

Monday will be the Flash PMIs Day for many major economies with the Eurozone, UK and US PMIs being the main highlights:

  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.6 expected vs. 45.8 prior.
  • Eurozone Services PMI: 52.1 expected vs. 52.9 prior.
  • UK Manufacturing PMI: 52.5 expected vs. 52.5 prior.
  • UK Services PMI: 53.5 expected vs. 53.7 prior.
  • US Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 expected vs. 47.9 prior.
  • US Services PMI: 55.3 expected vs. 55.7 prior.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 8:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Bostic Gives Speech on Economic Outlook
  • 8:30 AM ET                  National Activity index for August
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept flash
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept flash
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite, Sept flash
  • 10:15 AM ET                Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Fireside Chat

Global

  • Japan on Holiday,
  • Australia/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs.

Other key events

  • BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
  • Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Scottsdale, AZ
  • RBC Capital Pharmaceutical CDMO & Bioprocessing Conference, 9/23-9/24

Tuesday – Sep 24

RBA

  • RBA’s Expected Cash Rate: 4.35%
  • Maintained hawkish stance amid high inflation.
  • First rate cut expected in February 2025.
  • Total easing expected at 101 bps by year-end.

US Consumer Confidence

  • US Consumer Confidence Expected at 103.8 vs 103.3
  • Consumer confidence rose in August, but remained within narrow range.
  • Mixed feelings expressed in August: more positive about business conditions, more concerned about labor market.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
  • 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20 City index for July
  • 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for September
  • 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Index for September
  • 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
  • 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

Global

  •  Japan Flash PMI,
  • RBA Policy Decision,
  • German IFO,
  • US Consumer Confidence. 

Other key events

  • BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
  • Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Scottsdale, AZ
  • Oppenheimer Innovating Sustainability Summit, 9/24
  • RBC Capital Pharmaceutical CDMO & Bioprocessing Conference, 9/23-9/24
  • RBC Capital Global Communications Infrastructure Conference 9/24-9/25, in Chicago, IL
  • RBC Capital Global Industrials Conference 9/24-9/25, in Las Vegas


Wednesday –Sep 25

Australian Monthly CPI

  • Australian Monthly CPI Expected at 3.1% Y/Y
  • Expected increase from 3.5% prior.
  • RBA Governor Bullock predicts more data to confirm inflation return to target.
  • Release unlikely to alter inflation outlook unless significant deviations occur.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 10:00 AM ET                New Home Sales M/M for August
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 1:00 PM ET U.S> treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

Global

  • Australia Monthly CPI.

Other Key Events:

  • BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
  • Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Scottsdale, AZ
  • RBC Capital Global Communications Infrastructure Conference 9/24-9/25, in Chicago, IL
  • RBC Capital Global Industrials Conference 9/24-9/25, in Las Vegas

Thursday – Sep 26

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Expected Rate Cut

  • SNB expected to cut rates by 25 bps, bringing policy rate to 1.00%.
  • Market predicts a 45% probability of a larger 50 bps cut due to unexpected inflation drop to 1.1%.
  • SNB’s Jordan stated that Swiss Franc strength is affecting Swiss industry.
  • High likelihood of a 50 bps cut or currency intervention threat.

US Jobless Claims Weekly Update

  • Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
  • Continuing Claims have shown sustained rise in the last weeks.
  • This week’s Initial Claims expected at 225K, a decrease from 219K.
  • No consensus on Continuing Claims at this time, with a previous drop to 1829K.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 Final
  • 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending Q2 final
  • 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator Q2 final
  • 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices for Q2 final
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Prices for Q2 final
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Orders for August
  • 9:10 AM ET                  Fed’s Collins, Kugler Participate in Fireside Chat
  • 9:25 AM ET                  Fed’s Williams Gives Remarks at Conference
  • 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for August
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 10:30 AM ET                Fed’s Barr Gives Remarks at Conference
  • 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for September
  • 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

Global

  • SNB Policy Decision
  • US Durable Goods Orders
  • US Q2 Final GDP
  • US Jobless Claims.

Other Key Events:

  • BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
  • Goldman Sachs European Real Estate Equity and Debt Conference, 9/26, in London
  • Oppenheimer Oncology Summit at MD Anderson, 9/26

Friday –Sep 27

Tokyo Core CPI

  • Tokyo Core CPI Expected to Increase to 2.0% Y/Y
  • Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator for National CPI, making it more important for market than National figure.
  • BoJ policy decision unchanged, Governor Ueda dovish due to decreased upside price risks from recent FX moves.

US PCE Y/Y Expectations

  • Expected at 2.3% vs. 2.5% prior.
  • M/M figure at 0.1% vs. 0.2% prior.
  • Core PCE Y/Y expected at 2.7% vs. 2.6% prior.
  • M/M reading at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
  • PCE estimates reliable once CPI and PPI are out.
  • Fed’s Waller expects 0.14% on Core M/M measure.
  • Inflation data less important due to Fed’s focus on labour market.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Income for August
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending for August
  • 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Index M/M for August
  • 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Index Y/Y for August
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Prices Index M/M for August
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Prices Index Y/Y for August
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Goods Trade Balance for August
  • 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, Sept-Final
  • 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, Sept-final
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Global

  • Tokyo CPI,
  • Canada GDP,
  • US PCE.

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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.

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