Key Events are for this week include the Canadian and UK CPI reports followed by the Flash PMIs on Thursday.
Monday – May 20
PBoC LPR
The PBoC is expected to maintain the 1-year and 5-year LPR rates at 3.45% and 3.95%, with the MLF rate at 2.50%, despite mixed economic data.
Key Events on watch
US
- 8:45 AM ET Fed’s Bostic Gives Welcome Remarks
- 9:00 AM ET Fed’s Barr Gives Keynote Remarks
- 7:00 PM ET Fed’s Bostic Moderates Keynote Remarks
Earnings
- Zoom Video Communications
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW),
- Li Auto (LI),
- Wix.com (WIX),
- Keysight Technologies (KEYS),
- Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM),
- EHang Holdings Limited (EH),
- Niu Technologies (NIU),
- Global-E Online (GLBE),
- Beam Global (BEEM),
- Compugen (CGEN),
- Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK),
- Ryanair (RYAAY)
Global
- PBoC LPR
- Fed’s Waller.
Tuesday – May 21
Canadian CPI
The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected to be 2.8%, with a focus on underlying inflation measures. The Trimmed-Mean and Median CPI are expected to be 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, providing confidence for the first rate cut in June.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:00 AM ET Fed’s Barkin Gives Welcome Remarks
- 9:00 AM ET Fed’s Waller Discusses US Economy
- 9:05 AM ET Fed’s Williams Gives Opening Remarks
- 9:10 AM ET Fed’s Bostic Offers Brief Welcome Remarks
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
- 7:00 PM ET Fed’s Bostic Moderates Panel with Collins and Mester
Earnings
- Lowe’s
- Amer Sports (AS),
- XPeng (XPEV),
- ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM),
- AutoZone (AZO),
- Toll Brothers (TOL),
- Ayro (AYRO), Trevena (TRVN),
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL),
- Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP),
- Affimed N.V. (AFMD),
- Gaotu Techedu (GOTU),
- Burlington Stores (BURL)
Global
- RBA Meeting Minutes,
- Canada CPI
Wednesday – May 22
RBNZ Policy Decision
The RBNZ is expected to maintain its Official Cash Rate at 5.50%, aiming for a 1-3% inflation target. The market anticipates policy easing in August, with the central bank not expected to normalize policy before 2025.
UK CPI
The UK CPI Y/Y is expected to be 2.1%, while the Core CPI is 3.7%. The BoE’s focus on services inflation will impact market expectations, potentially leading to a June rate cut.
FOMC Minutes
The FOMC Minutes are not typically market-moving due to the market already knowing what to expect and becoming stale with more data. The QT tapering could have been included in the Minutes, but it’s not a significant deal.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 9:40 AM ET Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
- 10:00 EM ET Existing Home Sales M/M for April
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes.
- 2:00 PM ET FOMC Minutes from May Fed meeting
Earnings
- NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Target (TGT)
- Snowflake (SNOW),
- PDD Holdings (PDD),
- The TJX Companies (TJX),
- Analog Devices (ADI),
- Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW),
- V.F. Corporation (VFC),
- Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK),
- Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM),
- Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS),
- Synopsys (SNPS),
- Williams-Sonoma (WSM),
- Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV),
- Petco Health
- Wellness Company (WOOF),
- Universal Corporation (UVV)
Global
- RBNZ Policy Decision
- UK CPI
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday – May 23
Eurozone Negotiated Q1 Wage Growth
The Eurozone Negotiated Q1 Wage Growth is expected to boost the ECB’s confidence in inflation outlook. Although it is unlikely to change their plan for the first rate cut in June, it could influence market expectations.
Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 46.6 expected vs. 45.7 prior.
- Eurozone Services PMI 53.5 expected vs. 53.3 prior.
- UK Manufacturing PMI 49.2 expected vs. 49.1 prior.
- UK Services PMI 54.8 expected vs. 55.0 prior.
- US Manufacturing PMI no consensus vs. 50.0 prior.
- US Services PMI 51.5 expected vs. 51.3 prior.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI May-Flash
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, May-Flash
- 10:00 AM ET New Home Sales M/M for April
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for May
US Jobless Claims
US Jobless Claims are crucial weekly indicators of the labor market’s state, as a weakening market is more likely to lead to disinflation. Initial Claims are expected to hover around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain stable at 1800K.
Earnings
- Workday (WDAY)
- Polestar Automotive Holding (PSNY)
- Medtronic (MDT)
- SunPower Corporation (SPWR)
- Intuit (INTU)
- Bilibili (BILI)
- Ross Stores (ROST)
- NetEase (NTES)
- KNOT Offshore Partners LP Common Units (KNOP)
- Weibo Corporation (WB)
- 23andMe Holding (ME)
- National Grid (NGG)
- Emeren Group (SOL)
- Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)
- Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A)
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
- BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ)
- Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN)
- The Children’s Place (PLCE)
Global
- New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales,
- Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs,
- Eurozone Negotiated Q1 Wage Growth,
- US Jobless Claims.
Friday – May 24
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders M/M for April
- 8:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders M/M Ex: Transportation for April
- 9:35 AM ET Fed’s Waller Gives Keynote Address
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan Sentiment, May-Final
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
- 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Earnings
- Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
- The Buckle (BKE)
- Mesa Laboratories (MLAB)
- Fanhua (FANH)
- Sunlands Technology Group (STG)
- Trinity Biotech plc (TRIB)
- CorVel Corporation (CRVL)
- CureVac N.V. (CVAC)
- UP Fintech Holding Limited (TIGR)
Global
- Japan CPI
- UK Retail Sales
- Canada Retail Sales
- US Durable Goods Orders
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