Key Events in the Week Ahead: US & China CPI, UK GDP, and US NFIB Report highlight the releases and events.

Key Events shows on the data front, the upcoming week is going to be more calm.

Monday – Sep 09

Key Events on watch

Chinese CPI Expectations

• Y/Y CPI: 0.7% vs 0.5% prior.
• M/M CPI: 0.5% vs 0.5% prior.
• High real rates in China despite economic need for low or negative rates.
• Slow support pledges by Chinese officials.

US

• 10:00 AM ET                Employment Trends for August
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for July
• 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for July

Global

•  China CPI

Other key events

• Apple (AAPL) holding product event where new iPhone launch expected
• Goldman Sachs 12th Annual CEEMEA Financials Symposium, 9/9 in London
• Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference, 9/9-9/12, in San Francisco, CA
• Oracle (ORCL) Cloud World 2024, 9/9-9/12, in Las Vegas, NV
• Roth MKM 11th Annual Solar & Storage Symposium at SPI, 9/9-9/12, in Anaheim, CA
• Wells Fargo Net Lease REIT Forum, 9/9 in New York

Tuesday – Sep 10

UK Labour Market Report:

• Expected 114K jobs added in July vs 97K in June.
• Unemployment Rate to decrease to 4.1% from 4.2%.
• Average Earnings including Bonus expected at 4.1% from 4.5%.
• Average Earnings excluding Bonus expected at 5.1% from 5.4%.
• 83% probability of no change at BoE meeting.
• Expected 43 bps of easing by year-end.

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Expected at 93.6

• Expected to rise from 93.7 prior.
• Empty week with market focused on growth.
• NFIB index recently broke out of 2022 range, reaching new cycle high at 93.6.

Key Events on watch

US

• 6:00 AM ET  NFIB Small business Optimism for August
• 7:45 AM ET  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET       Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET  US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET  API Weekly Inventory Data

Global

• UK Labour Market report
• US NFIB Business Optimism Index.

Other key events

• BTIG GameDay: iGaming and Sports Betting Forum, 9/10 in New York
• Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference, 9/9-9/12, in San Francisco, CA
• Oracle (ORCL) Cloud World 2024, 9/9-9/12, in Las Vegas, NV
• Roth MKM 11th Annual Solar & Storage Symposium at SPI, 9/9-9/12, in Anaheim, CA

Wednesday –Sep 11

US CPI Y/Y Expectations

• Expected at 2.6% vs. 2.9% prior.
• M/M measure at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
• Core CPI Y/Y at 3.2% vs. 3.2% prior.
• M/M figure at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
• Fed focuses on labour market.
• Inflation surprises have less significance.
• Soft report may push expectations for a 50 bps cut back around 50%.

Key Events on watch

US

• 7:00 AM ET  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y
• 8:30 AM ET  CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M
• 8:30 AM ET  CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for August
• 1:00 PM ET  US Treasury to sell $42B in 10-year notes

Global

• UK GDP
• US CPI.

Other Key Events:

• Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference, 9/9-9/12, in San Francisco, CA
• Goldman Sachs China+ Conference 2024, 9/11-9/12 in Hon Kong
• JP Morgan Alternative Solutions and Specials Symposium, 9/11-9/12, in South Pointe
• Oppenheimer Southern California MedTech Bus Tour (RXST, EW, TNDM, DXCM), 9/11
• Oracle (ORCL) Cloud World 2024, 9/9-9/12, in Las Vegas, NV
• Roth MKM 11th Annual Solar & Storage Symposium at SPI, 9/9-9/12, in Anaheim, CA

Thursday – Sep 12

ECB Expected Rate Cut

• Expected to cut by 25 bps, bringing policy rate to 3.50%.
• Strong telegraphed since July.
• Market expects 25 bps cuts at each meeting until June 2025.
• President Lagarde may not explicitly commit to back-to-back cut in October.

US Jobless Claims Weekly Update

• Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
• Continuing Claims show sustained rise, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.
• Expected Initial Claims: 230K vs. 227K this week.
• Continuing Claims: 1850K vs. 1838K prior.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y
• 8:30 AM ET  PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M
• 8:30 AM ET  PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y
• 10:30 AM ET          Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET  WASDE Agricultural report
• 1:00 PM ET  US Treasury to sell $25B in 30-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for August

Global

•  Japan PPI, ECB Policy Decision
• US PPI
• US Jobless Claims.

Other Key Events:

• Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference, 9/9-9/12, in San Francisco, CA
• Goldman Sachs China+ Conference 2024, 9/11-9/12 in Hon Kong
• JP Morgan Alternative Solutions and Specials Symposium, 9/11-9/12, in South Pointe
• Oracle (ORCL) Cloud World 2024, 9/9-9/12, in Las Vegas, NV
• Roth MKM 11th Annual Solar & Storage Symposium at SPI, 9/9-9/12, in Anaheim, CA

Friday –Sep 13

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expectation

• Expected to reach 68.0 vs. 67.9 prior.
• More significant at business cycle turning points.
• Market closely monitored due to focus on growth.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 8:30 AM ET                  Import/Export Prices for August
• 10:00 AM  University of Michigan Confidence
• 10:00 AM ET     University of Michigan 1&5yr inflation exp
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Global

•  New Zealand Manufacturing PMI
• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Other Key Events:

• European Society for Medical Oncology Congress (ESMO), 9/13-9/17, in Barcelona, Spain

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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.