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Key Events in the Week Ahead: US CPI, US Retail Sales, UK and Australian Jobs

Key Events include US CPI, retail sales data, China inflation, PBoC MLF, Australian and UK jobs reports, and Japanese GDP.

Monday – May 12

New Zealand Services PMI

The RBNZ’s quarterly Survey of Expectations is set to release on 13th, with business leaders and forecasters predicting a decrease in inflation. The RBNZ maintained its hawkish-leaning tone at its April 10th meeting, maintaining the OCR at 5.50%. The committee believes maintaining this level will return consumer price inflation to within the 1%-3% target range this year.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 9:00 AM Fed’s Mester, Jefferson Discuss Central Bank Communications

Earnings

  • Petrobras (PBR),
  • Tencent Music (TME),
  • Agilysys (AGYS).
  • Terawulf (WULF)
  • Hyzon Motors (HYZN)

Global

  • New Zealand Services PMI.

Tuesday – May 13

US PPI

The US PPI M/M is expected to be 0.2% higher than the prior rate, with the market likely to focus on the upcoming US CPI report, potentially triggering defensive positioning.

UK Unemployment Rate

The UK Jobs Report predicts a rise in unemployment to 4.3% in the 3M period to March, with headline wages to slip to 5.5% from 5.6%. The ex-bonus figure is expected to drop to 5.9% from 6.0%. Analysts predict a 20K month-to-month rise in payroll employment in April. Policymakers are focusing on wage growth and if any cooling will ease policy, with a June reduction priced at 48%.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 6:00 AM                  NFIB Small Business Optimism for April
  • 7:45 AM                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM                   Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for April
  • 8:30 AM                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y for April
  • 8:30 AM                  PPI Core (ex: food and energy) M/M
  • 8:30 AM                   PPI Core (ex: food and energy) Y/Y
  • 8:55 AM                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 10:00 AM                 Fed Chair Powell, ECB’s Knot Speak
  • 4:30 PM                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings

  • Home Depot (HD),
  • Alibaba (BABA),
  • Sony (SONY),
  • Tencent Holdings (OTCPK:TCEHY),
  • Flutter Entertainment (FLUT).
  • Rumble (RUM)
  • Jack in the Box (JACK)

Global

  •  Japan PPI,
  • UK Labour Market Report,
  • Eurozone ZEW,
  • US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index,
  • US PPI,
  • Fed Chair Powell speech.


Wednesday – May 14

US CPI

The US CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M, with a market reaction to a downside surprise likely being stronger than an upside. Fed Chair Powell has pushed against rate hikes, stating they need “persuasive” evidence of their policy’s insufficient restrictiveness. The market expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, potentially reducing pricing if another inflation report is released.

Australian Wage Price Index

The Australian Wage Price Index is expected to rise to 1.0% in Q/Q, despite high wage growth and inflation. The RBA is cautious about hawkishness, expecting the first rate cut in Q2 2025, with potential rate hikes this year.

US Retail Sales

US Retail Sales M/M is expected to be 0.4% vs 0.7%, with ex-Autos M/M at 0.2%. Soft consumer sentiment reports may influence spending, and volatile retail sales data may be ignored.

PBoC

The PBoC is expected to maintain the MLF rate at 2.50% due to positive China data and a lack of urgency in addressing inflation.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  CPI Core (ex: food and energy) M/M
  • 8:30 AM ET                  CPI Core (ex: food and energy) Y/Y
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Empire Fed Manufacturing for May
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sale – Less Autos M/M for April
  • 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventories M/M for March
  • 10:00 AM ET                NAHB Housing Market Index for May
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for April
  • 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Fireside Chat
  • 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long term TIC Flows for March

Earnings

  • Cisco Systems (CSCO),
  • Grab (GRAB),
  • Monday.com (MNDY).
  • Spire Global (SPIR)
  • Hut 8 (HUT)

Global

  •  Australia Wage Price Index,
  • Eurozone Industrial Production,
  • US CPI, US Retail Sales,
  • US NAHB Housing Market Index,
  • PBoC MLF.

Thursday – May 15

US Jobless Claims

US Jobless Claims are crucial for monitoring the labor market’s state, as a weakening economy is more likely to lead to disinflation. Last week’s Initial Claims missed by 231K, the highest since August 2023. This week’s Initial Claims are expected to be 220K, and there’s no consensus on Continuing Claims.

Australian Labour Market

The Australian Labour Market report predicts 25.3K jobs added in April, with a higher unemployment rate. The RBA’s focus on inflation may be hindered by labor market tightness.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Housing Starts M/M for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Import/Export Prices M/M for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Survey for May
  • 9:15 AM ET                  Industrial Production M/M for April
  • 9:15 AM ET                  Capacity Utilization for April
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 10:30 AM ET                Fed’s Harker Speaks on Higher Education, Healthcare
  • 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Mester Gives Remarks on Economic Outlook
  • 3:50 PM ET                   Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Moderated Chat on Economy

Earnings

  • Walmart (WMT)
  • Applied Materials (AMAT)
  • Deere (DE)
  • JD.com (JD)
  • Baidu (BIDU)
  • Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

Global

  • Japan GDP
  • Australia Labour Market Report
  • US Housing Starts and Building Permits
  • US Jobless Claims
  • US Industrial Production.

Friday – May 16

Chinese retail sales

Chinese retail sales are expected to rise to 3.8% Y/Y, with fixed asset investment rising to 4.6%. Industrial production is currently at 4.5%. The joint release of Chinese GDP and Activity data showed that the former beat expectations in Q1, driven by fixed asset investments. However, industrial capacity utilization slipped to the lowest level since 2020, with concerns over a sharp drop in automobile industry utilization capacity. Manufacturing production levels increased at the fastest pace since May 2023.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 10:00 AM ET                Leading Indicators M/M for April
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings

AMC Networks (AMCX), Enbridge (ENB).

Global

  • New Zealand PPI,
  • China Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  • Fed’s Waller speech.

 

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