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HomeWeekly newsKey Events in the Week Ahead: US PMI, Jobless claims, and Canadian...

Key Events in the Week Ahead: US PMI, Jobless claims, and Canadian PMI Report highlight the releases and events.

Key Events will be crucial as markets are primarily focused on US data.

Monday – Sep 02

Key Events on watch

US

  • U.S. Markets closed for Labor Day Holiday

Global

  • US/Canada Holiday,
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI,
  • Swiss Manufacturing PMI.

Other key events

  • Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, and Airline One on One Day, 9/3-9/5, in New York

Tuesday – Sep 03

Switzerland CPI Y/Y and M/M Expectations

  • Possible 50 bps cut or central bank intervention.
  • Expected 1.2% CPI Y/Y and 0.1% M/M measure.
  • SNB expected to deliver 52 bps of easing by year end.
  • 67% probability of 25 bps cut at September meeting.
  • 33% for a 50 bps cut.
  • SNB’s Jordan’s dissatisfaction with strong Swiss Franc appreciation.

RBA’s Expected Cash Rate: 4.35%

  • RBA maintains hawkish tone due to inflation stickiness.
  • Market often anticipates rate hikes.
  • Australian Q2 CPI lowered expectations, leading to rate cuts.
  • 32 bps of easing expected by year-end.
  • Increase due to soft US NFP report.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Expected at 47.8 vs. 46.8

  • The ISM release triggered a selloff in risk assets due to a “growth scare.”
  • The employment sub-index fell to a new 4-year low before the NFP report, triggering further selling.
  • August data suggests weak data in July may have been negatively affected by Hurricane Beryl.
  • The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI released two weeks ago showed the second consecutive contraction, with bleak commentary.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:45 AM ET  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 9:45 AM ET  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Aug-Final
  • 10:00 AM ET  ISM Manufacturing PMI for August
  • 10:00 AM ET         Construction Spending M/M for July
  • 8:55 AM ET           Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 4:30 PM ET  API Weekly Inventory Data

Global

  • Swiss CPI,
  • Swiss Q2 GDP,
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI,
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Other key events

  • Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, and Airline One on One Day, 9/3-9/5, in New York
  • Deutsche Bank European TMT Conference, 9/4-9/5, in London
  • Goldman Sachs European MedTech & Healthcare Services Conference, 9/4-9/5 in London
  • Goldman Sachs 31st Annual Global Retailing Conference, 9/4-9/5, in New York


Wednesday –Sep 04

BoC Expected Rate Cut

  • Market expects 75 bps of easing by year end, including September cut.
  • BoC expected to cut rates by 25 bps, bringing policy rate to 4.25%.
  • Recent CPI report indicates easing in inflation measures.Soft labour market data.

US Job Openings Expectations

  • Expected at 8.100M vs 8.184M.
  • Slight increase in last report, strong downtrend since 2022.
  • Low quit, hiring, and layoff rates due to softening labor market.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:00 AM  ET  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:30 AM  ET                  International Trade Deficit
  • 10:00 AM  ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for July
  • 10:00 AM  ET                Factory Orders M/M for July
  • 10:00 AM  ET                JOLTs Job Openings for July
  • 10:30 AM  ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 2:00 PM  ET                   Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Global

  •  Australia Q2 GDP,
  • China Caixin Services PMI,
  • Eurozone PPI,
  • BoC Policy Decision,
  • US Job Openings,
  • Fed Beige Book.

Thursday – Sep 05

Japanese Average Cash Earnings Expected to Rise

  • Expected to be 3.1% Y/Y, up from 4.5%.
  • Economic indicators include wages, inflation, services prices, and GDP gap.
  • Governor Ueda open to rate hikes if price outlook is achieved.
  • Short-term interest rate remains low, indicating potential for neutral rate levels.

US Jobless Claims

US Jobless Claims Weekly Update

  • Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
  • Continuing Claims show steady rise, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.
  • Expected Initial Claims: 230K vs. 231K this week.
  • Continuing Claims: 1865K vs. 1868K prior.

US ISM Services PMI Expectations

  • Expected at 51.1 vs. 51.4 prior.
  • Survey has been inconsistent since 2022.
  • Market may focus on employment sub-index ahead of US NFP report.

S&P Global Services PMI

  • Uptick in services sector due to Q3 growth divergence between Manufacturing and Services.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 7:30 AM ET      Challenger Job Layoffs for August
  • 8:15 AM ET  ADP Private Payroll Employment
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Q2 US Nonfarm Productivity
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Q2 Unit Labor Costs
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI,
  • 9:45 AM ET  S&P Global Services PMI, Aug-Final
  • 10:00 AM ET  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:30 AM ET             Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Global

  • Japan Average Cash Earnings
  • Swiss Unemployment Rate
  • Eurozone Retail Sales
  • US ADP
  • US Jobless Claims
  • Canada Services PMI
  • US ISM Services PMI.

Friday –Sep 06

Canadian Labour Market

  • Expected 25.0K jobs added in August vs -2.8K in July.
  • Unemployment Rate to rise to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior.
  • Market unlikely to be affected due to simultaneous release of US NFP.

US non-farm payrolls

  • Expected 165K jobs added in August vs. 114K in July.
  • Unemployment Rate to decrease to 4.2% vs. 4.3%.
  • Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y at 3.7% vs. 3.6%.
  • M/M figures at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.
  • Last month’s labour market report was weaker than expected, triggering selling in risk assets.
  • Possible cause of weaker figures: Hurricane Beryl.
  • BLS reports no discernible effect of Hurricane Beryl on data.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Global

  • Canada Labour Market report
  • US NFP.

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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.

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