Key Factors : Top events to watch in markets in the week ahead.

Key Factors

Key Factors :

Key Factors : PMI data will reveal how the global economy is doing as earnings season begins, big central banks meet for the first time in 2024. Start your week with this information.

Weekly Economic calendar USA JAN 22 to 26th

Monday

• Leading Index M/M for December

Tuesday 

• 7:45 AM ET                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Index for January
• 12:00 PM ET                US Treasury to sell $57B in 2-year notes.
• 4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Wednesday 

• 7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Jan-Flash
• 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Services PMI, Jan-Flash
• 1:00 PM ET                  US Treasury to sell $58B in 5-year notes.
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Thursday 

• 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 Advance
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Spending Advance for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                  GDP Price Deflator for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                  PCE Prices Advance for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Prices Davance for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Orders M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Goods Trade Balance for December
• 10:00 AM ET                New Home Sales M/M for December
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed manufacturing for January
• 1:00 PM ET                  US Treasury to sell $40B in 7-year notes.

Friday 

• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Income M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index Y/Y for December
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Price Index M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Price Index Y/Y for December
• 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for December
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

TOP FACTORS IN WALL STREET

US data

Slowing inflation has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower rates this year, but some policymakers have backed off. A significant US inflation number on Thursday will shed light on interest rate trends.

Personal consumption expenditures data for December comes after the price index rose 2.6% in the year to November and prices declined for the first time in over three and a half years.

Wednesday will see the government announce fourth-quarter GDP figures, which is predicted to rise 2.0% after 4.9% in the previous quarter.

Fed officials will observe the typical blackout before their Jan. 30-31 policy meeting.

Rising earnings

Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings from Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), 3M (NYSE:MMM), and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday for the first time in two years, boosted by chipmakers and other tech stocks, but it might lose momentum if earnings results in the coming weeks fail to justify high valuations.

“This new record level of the S&P 500 is sustainable as long as earnings meet expectations,” Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick told Reuters.

“If the market has gotten ahead of itself or we get guidance from some of these companies that doesn’t match the bullish sentiment that’s priced into them, that can be a real risk.”

European tech giants ASML (AS:ASML), Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI), SAP (NYSE:SAP), and LVMH (EPA:LVMH) will report this week.

Central bank sessions

The European Central Bank meets its first policy meeting of 2024 on Thursday amid market expectations of five rate cuts.

Policymakers say markets are ahead of themselves, and President Christine Lagarde warns that pricing too many cuts will not help the bank battle inflation.

Markets predict no change at the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting on Tuesday, but investors are watching for signs of a possible escape from negative interest rates later this year.

For the fourth straight meeting, the Bank of Canada is anticipated to retain interest rates at 5% on Wednesday.

PMIs

Investors expect a weaker global economy and rate reduction later this year.

Wednesday’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index readings for the Eurozone, UK, and US will show how business activity, in contraction territory worldwide, has maintained at the start of the year.

As forward-looking components, new orders and employment aspirations will be examined. New orders are falling everywhere, indicating firms are prepared for harsh times, despite financial markets’ optimism.

Weekly Global Market Calendar (22 Jan-26 Jan)

Monday, JAN 22

• PBoC LPR
• New Zealand Services PMI.

Tuesday, JAN 23

• BoJ Policy Decision
• New Zealand CPI.

Wednesday, JAN24

• Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs
• BoC Policy Decision.

Thursday, JAN 25

• ECB Policy Decision
• US Durable Goods Orders
• US Jobless Claims
• US Q4 Advance GDP.

Friday, JAN 26

• Tokyo CPI
• US PCE.

Global Events in details date wise

Monday 22

PBoC
Following the MLF decision last week, the PBoC is projected to maintain 1-year LPR rates at 3.45% and 5-year rates at 4.20%. Deflationary forces persist, and the Chinese stock market is plummeting with gloomy attitude. It may take a significant catalyst like dramatic rate cuts to turn things around, so watch for surprises.

Tuesday Jan 23

BoJ

The BoJ is likely to maintain rates at -0.10% and the 10-year JGB yield target at 0% with a reference cap of 1%. Recent Japanese CPI dropped across all metrics, and Average Cash Earnings disappointed. The BoJ will likely stress that they are focusing on wage growth and the spring wage negotiations and will consider additional easing measures if necessary.

New Zealand YoY CPI
The New Zealand CPI Y/Y is projected at 4.7% vs. 5.6% and Q/Q at 0.6% vs. 1.8%. The statistics won’t affect the February rate decision, but it will affect market pricing with the first rate drop in May.

Wednesday JAN24

The PMI
The Flash PMIs will focus on Eurozone, UK, and US data:

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 44.8, up from 44.4.
Eurozone Services PMI 49.0, up from 48.8.
UK Manufacturing PMI 46.7, up from 46.2.
UK Services PMI 53.5, up from 53.4.
US Manufacturing PMI 48.0, up from 47.9.
Former 51.4, now 51.0 US Services PMI.

BoC Meeting

The BoC will likely maintain 5.00% rates. Canadian data supports the central bank’s patience as underlying inflation measures rose for the second month in a row and wage growth reached its highest level since 2021. The Bank of Canada emphasizes those two initiatives and expects rate reduction this year, although the timing is unpredictable and data-dependent.

Thursday JAN 25

ECB

Rates are projected to stay at 4.00% at the ECB. The central bank has been resisting significant rate decreases, with consensus for the first cut moving toward June compared to the market’s April prediction. The recent statistics showed the Core CPI Y/Y dropping while the M/M rose 0.6%, which is concerning. The ECB doesn’t like record-low unemployment and high pay growth for a return to their 2% aim.
US Jobless claims
A more timely predictor of the labor market, US Jobless Claims remain one of the most essential releases each week. Continuing Claims started to fall after hitting a cycle high, whereas Initial Claims stayed around cycle lows. This week’s consensus is 200K Initial Claims vs. 187K and 1840K Continuing Claims vs. 1806K.

Friday JAN 26

US Core PCE YoY

The US PCE Y/Y is predicted to be 2.6%, while the M/M is 0.2%, up from -0.1%. The 3-month and 6-month annualized rates are predicted to dip to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, due to the Core PCE Y/Y at 3.0% and the M/M at 0.2%.

WEEKLY EARNINGS CALENDAR

Monday, JAN 22

United Airlines

Tuesday, JAN 23

GE, JNJ, Procter & Gamble, Verizon, 3M, CN Rail, Netflix, Baker Hughes

Wednesday, JAN 24

AT&T, Tesla, IBM

Thursday Jan 25

Dow Chemical, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Intel, Visa, T-Mobile

Friday, JAN 26

American Express, Norfolk Southern

For details

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