Key Market Drivers
Dow futures contract was down 90 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures were down 9 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 35 points, or 0.2%.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price data, is due on Thursday. Recent economic data releases, particularly consumer prices, have prompted investors to delay bets on rate cuts. The January CPI’s upside surprise is expected to be replicated, underlining Fed caution about timing rate cuts. Year-on-year headline and ‘core’ PCE inflation rates are expected to slip to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively, with monthly rises expected to be 0.3% and 0.4%.
WSJ Reveals SEC Investigation into OpenAI’s Leadership Discord
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to investigate the leadership turmoil at OpenAI, following the company’s decision to fire CEO Sam Altman in November. The regulator is specifically looking into internal communications involving Altman and has sent a subopena to OpenAI in December. The scandal arose after OpenAI’s ChatGPT software release in late 2022, leading to a surge in generative artificial intelligence. The SEC is reportedly looking into the matter to ensure transparency and prevent misinformation.
European inflation data is due
European inflation data is due on Thursday, with consumer prices from Germany, France, and Spain. The eurozone’s CPI is expected to fall to 2.5% annually, from 2.8% in February. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that it’s too early to cut interest rates. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that there is still a lack of reliable data on wage developments and confirmation that inflation will return to 2% in 2025. The ECB will release new quarterly economic projections next Thursday.
Economic Calendar
8:30 AM Weekly Jobless Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
8:30 AM Personal Income M/M for January
8:30 AM Personal Spending M/M for January
8:30 AM PCE Price Index M/M for January
8:30 AM PCE Price Index Y/Y for January
8:30 AM Core PCE Price Index M/M for January
8:30 AM Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for January
9:45 AM Chicago PMI for February
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales M/M for January
10:30 AM Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
10:50 AM Fed’s Bostic Participates in Fireside Chat
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for February
11:00 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Remarks on Monetary Policy
1:15 PM Fed’s Mester Speaks on Financial Stability and Regulation
8:10 PM Fed’s Williams Participates in Moderated Discussion
Other Key Events:
- KBW Fintech & Payments Conference, 2/27-2/29, in New York
- Piper West Coast Financials Services Conference, 2/28-3/1, in Las Vegas
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI for February
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI-Final for February
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