Ahead this week: US and China inflation, UK Q1 GDP, and BoE Interest Rate decision
Main global factors for the week Ahead
Monday
US CB Employment Trends Index April
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) dropped from a revised 116.75 in February 2021 to 116.24 in March.
China Exports, Imports and Trade Balance April
The exports statistics came in above experts’ projections, which, according to a Reuters survey, were for a 7.0% decline. Less than the 5% decline projected, imports decreased by 1.4%. China’s trade surplus expanded to $88.19 billion in March 2021, above market estimates of $39.2 billion. It had climbed from $44.35 billion the previous year.
Wednesday
US CB Employment Trends Index April
US CPI, Core CPI April In March, total US consumer prices rose 5% from a year earlier, down from 6% in February and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Prices increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis in March after rising by 0.4% in February.
April China CPI and PPI
In March, China’s consumer inflation reached its lowest level since September 2020. Compared to a 1.0% increase in February, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% in March. After declining 1.4% in February, its producer price index (PPI), which measures costs at the factory gate, decreased 2.5% annually in March. On a monthly basis, food costs decreased by 1.4%.
Thursday
BoE Decision on Interest Rates
The Monetary Policy Committee of the British central bank will release its interest rates, along with a summary and minutes, on May 11. The Bank of England increased interest rates by 0.25 percent to 0.5% on March 23.
April US PPI
In March, the Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5%. For the year that concluded in March, prices for final demand increased by 2.7%.
Friday
Q1 UK GDP
The fourth quarter (October to December) of 2022 is expected to have a 0.1% increase in the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP). This comes after a 0.1% decline in the third quarter of 2022 (July to September). Following a 0.4% growth in January, it was expected that monthly GDP would have climbed by 0% in February 2023.
March UK Trade Balance
From £16.09 billion in January to £17.53 billion in February, the total goods trade deficit widened.
U.S. Key factors on watch in this week
Chinese economic data:- on tuesday,The erratic post-COVID recovery in the second-largest economy in the world will be further illuminated by a slew of economic data coming out of China in the upcoming week.
Inflation statistics: On Wednesday, the United States will announce statistics on inflation for April. Economists anticipate that the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, will climb by 5.5% on an annual basis, down from a 5.6% increase in March. It is anticipated that the headline inflation rate would rise by 5% yearly.
Bank of England On Thursday, the Bank of England is anticipated to continue its fight against inflation by increasing interest rates by another 25 basis points.
Falling oil prices:- Even though oil prices rose on Friday, ongoing worries about the demand forecast resulted in a third consecutive weekly decrease.
MAY SELLING:- The advantage of November-April over May-October over the last 20 years has shrunk to 1%. Over the last ten years, November-April has underperformed May-October by 1%, and over the previous five years, it has underperformed by 3%.
Global major economic calendar for week ahead
MONDAY
UNITED STATES
Wholesale inventories (mar)
JAPAN
Bo monetary policy meeting minutes; jibun
Bank services & composite PMI Final (Apr)
China
Foreign Exchange Reserves (Apr)
Tuesday
Japan
Household spending (Mar)
China
Balance of trade (Apr)
Wednesday
USA
Inflation (apr); MBA mortgage applications,
API & EIA Crude Oil stock change (for week ended may 5)
japan
Foreign Exchange reserves (apr)
Thursday
USA
PPI (mar), Initial jobless claims ((for week ended may 6)
Japan
Current account (mar)
China
Inflation, PPI, vehicle sales (apr)
Uk
BoE Interest rate discussion
Friday
UK
GDP growth (estimate for Q1CY23)
Industrial Production, Construction output
Balance of trade
Major global Earning of the week
Next week marks the start of the global earnings season, with significant results anticipated from companies including Ferguson, Gap, and Adidas.etc