Key Events in the Week Ahead: UK Canada CPI, ECB, PBoC, and US jobs data highlight the releases and events.

Key Events is expected to be more tranquil in terms of data, with the main event being the UK CPI.

Monday – July 15

PBoC

The PBoC is aiming to improve its interest rate corridor effectiveness by maintaining the MLF rate at 2.50%, introducing a new cash management mechanism, and implementing a seven-day reverse repo rate.

US

• 8:30 AM                Empire Manufacturing for July
• 12:00 PM              Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David Rubenstein
• 4:35 PM                Fed’s Daly Speaks in Q&A on Economy, Tech

Global

• New Zealand Services PMI,
• PBoC MLF,
• China Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
• Eurozone Industrial Production,
• BoC Business Outlook Survey,
• Fed Chair Powell

Other events

• JMP Securities Technology Forum 7/15, in CA

• Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI

Tuesday – July 16

Canadian CPI

The Canadian CPI is expected to rise to 2.8% and 2.7% in the coming months, with a 78% chance of a rate cut in July, despite wage growth reaching 5.6% in the last report.

US Retail Sales

US Retail Sales M/M is expected to be 0.0% vs. 0.1%, with Ex-Autos M/M at 0.1%. Consumer spending remains stable, but weakness in UMich Consumer Sentiment suggests a slight softening.

US

• 7:45 AM ET  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales Less Autos M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                  Import/Export Prices M/M for June
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventories M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET  NAHB Housing Market Index for July
• 2:45 PM ET                   Fed’s Kugler Speaks at NABE Conference
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

Global

• Eurozone ZEW,
• Canada CPI,
• US Retail Sales,
• US NAHB Housing Market Index.

Other Key Events:

• Amazon’s annual Prime Day event to take place July 16^th and 17^th
• Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI

Wednesday –July 17

New Zealand’s Q2 CPI

New Zealand’s Q2 CPI is expected to be 3.5% Y/Y and 0.6% Q/Q, with the RBNZ keeping the OCR at 5.5%, causing increased expectations of rate cuts.

UK CPI

The UK CPI Y/Y is expected to be 2.0% higher than previously predicted, with the M/M measure at 0.1% and the Core CPI at 3.4%. The market’s 60% chance of a rate cut in August has been reduced to 50%, with the central bank chief economist stating the timing is uncertain.

Key Events on watch

US

• 7:00 AM ET  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:30 AM ET                  Housing Starts M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for June
• 9:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economy, Q&A
• 9:15 AM ET                  Industrial Production M/M for June
• 9:15 AM ET                  Capacity Utilization June
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET  US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Global

• New Zealand Q2 CPI,
• UK CPI,
• US Housing Starts and Building Permits,
• US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization,
• Fed’s Waller,
• Fed Beige Book.

Other Key Events:

• Amazon’s annual Prime Day event to take place July 16^th and 17^th
• Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI

Thursday – July 18

Australian Labour Market report

The Australian Labour Market report predicts 20K jobs added in June, unchanged unemployment rate at 4.0%, with policy expectations awaiting Q2 CPI report on July 31st.

UK Labour Market

The UK Labour Market report predicts 45K jobs added in June, unchanged unemployment rate at 4.4%, and a focus on wage growth. Softening wage growth or poor job figures could increase expectations for easing with 49 bps of cuts by year-end.

ECB

The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.75%, with the next open meeting in September, and the market anticipates an additional 46 bps of easing by year-end.

US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless Claims report shows steady Initial Claims at cycle lows, while Continuing Claims have been rising, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.

Initial Claims are expected to be 235K this week, while Continuing Claims are uncertain. This week’s reading saw a drop from 1856K to 1852K.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Index M/M for June
• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index Change M/M for June
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:45 PM ET                   Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC Flows
• 6:05 PM ET                   Fed’s Daly Participates in Fireside Chat
• 7:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Bowman Gives Keynote Address

Global

•  Australia Labour Market report,
• UK Labour Market report,
• ECB Policy Decision,
• US Jobless Claims.

Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI

Friday –July 19

Japanese Core CPI

The Japanese Core CPI is expected to be 2.7% Y/Y, with inflation at target. A rate hike is unlikely due to Japan’s decades of inflation goal. The BoJ is expected to trim bond purchases.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 10:40 AM     Fed’s Williams Speaks on Panel on Monetary Policy
• 1:00 PM       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Global

• Japan CPI,
• UK Retail Sales,
• Canada Retail Sales.

Must read book about investing – check here

The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.