Market Watch:-Dow futures contract increased by 0.3%, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.1%.
Fed chief Powell suggests higher interest rates may be necessary, but stock futures show positive Wall Street activity, UK inflation declines, and ASML reports strong sales to China.
Powell Speech
The Federal Reserve’s likelihood of cutting interest rates in June has been impacted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion that monetary policy needs to be more restrictive. Powell stated that recent data indicates it may take longer than expected to achieve confidence in falling inflation, and that the Fed is “not far” from gaining the confidence to cut interest rates. Investors are now predicting the first cut in September, with the odds of a second cut decreasing.
ASML earnings
Chipmaker ASML reported mixed Q1 results, with a profit beating expectations and sales missing forecasts, despite strong sales to China. However, the company kept its full-year financial forecasts unchanged, expecting a boost in the second half of the year. ASML, a key semiconductor firm, produced extreme ultraviolet lithography machines for advanced chips.
UK inflation slowed
UK consumer price inflation slowed to 3.2% in March, the weakest level for two-and-a-half years, down from a 3.4% increase in February. Food prices were the main reason for the fall, with a partial offset from rising fuel prices. Core inflation also slowed to 4.2% from 4.5% in February. The Bank of England maintained its interest rates at the highest level since 2008, with Governor Andrew Bailey stating that the UK’s economy is moving towards the point where interest rate cuts could be initiated.
Economic Calendar
- 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
- 10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
- 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
- 1:00 PM Results of $13B, 20-Year Bond Auction
- 2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
- 4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
- 5:30 PM Fed’s Mester Speech
- 7:15 PM Fed’s Bowman Speech
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MFitch Ratings has downgraded China’s credit rating outlook to “Negative” from “Stable” due to concerns over growing public debt and slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The agency affirmed China’s rating at A+, citing increasing risks to China’s public finance outlook. Concerns over slowing economic growth have grown in recent months, with Fitch expecting gross domestic product growth to fall to 4.5% in 2024.
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U.S. inflation data for February is expected to provide insights into the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The overall consumer price index (CPI) is expected to match the previous month’s pace of 3.1% annually, with the core CPI expected to slow to 3.7% from 3.9% in January. However, the month-on-month gauge is expected to shed light on price gains momentum.
Fed officials have made cooling inflation the main objective of interest rate hikes, which have brought borrowing costs to over two-decade highs. They suggest cuts may be coming later this year, but need more evidence that price growth is sustainablely easing back down to their 2% annualized target. Analysts at ING believe inflation is likely too hot for comfort.
U.S. inflation data for February is expected to provide insights into the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The overall consumer price index (CPI) is expected to match the previous month’s pace of 3.1% annually, with the core CPI expected to slow to 3.7% from 3.9% in January. However, the month-on-month gauge is expected to shed light on price gains momentum.
Fed officials have made cooling inflation the main objective of interest rate hikes, which have brought borrowing costs to over two-decade highs. They suggest cuts may be coming later this year, but need more evidence that price growth is sustainablely easing back down to their 2% annualized target. Analysts at ING believe inflation is likely too hot for comfort.