Next week’s events
Next week’s events for the Indian market: inflation, hdfc merger, corporate earning, etc
The Dalal Street bulls drove the main indices to new record highs on bullish global cues and sector rotational buying throughout the week ended July 14.
After a flat start, the benchmarks oscillated in a narrow range for much of the week, but a strong close in the final session lifted the index. Thus, Nifty and Sensex rose over 1% to 19,564.50 and 66,060.90 points, respectively.
IT companies surged, metal, real estate, and pharma also rose, but banking stocks lagged. Midcap and smallcap indices rose 1.25-1.85% on buying.
Most analysts expect a week of consolidation while earnings drive stock reactions. Global and domestic cues, FII and DII operations, monsoon development, and crude oil prices will drive markets in the coming days.
Inflation print
Retail inflation in India rose to 4.81 percent in June after touching a 25-month low of 4.25 percent in May. Food prices drove the rise, which is projected to continue in July.
People are upset about rising tomato and vegetable prices. High prices may raise inflation, putting RBI policymakers in a bind as they aim to lower it to 4 percent.
Q1 Results
Next week, earnings season will dominate stock movement. CRISIL, LTI Mindtree, HDFC Bank, Tata Elxsi, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Prudential, Tata Communications, CanFin Homes, HUL, Infosys, and Mphasis will make important announcements next week.
Monsoon approach
The monsoon has been raging across northern India, especially the mountains. Flash floods, landslides, and deaths resulted. Destroyed crackers have hurt the economy most.
Traders will track monsoon. If it persists, the country and enterprises in numerous sectors will suffer enormous economic losses.
Public issues looming
Two public issues and four bourse listings will make for another hectic primary market week.
Netweb Technologies India, a mainboard manufacturer, will launch its IPO on July 17 at Rs 475–500 per share.
SME Asarfi Hospital will IPO next week. This issue opens July 17 and closes July 19 at Rs 51-52 per share.
AccelerateBS India, Kaka Industries, Drone Destination, and Ahasolar Technologies will all float in the SME sector, with no mainboard listings.
FII inflow
For months, foreign investors have invested in India. In the first two weeks, they net bought Rs 30,660 crore in shares. Five consecutive months of positive inflow. This is the main reason analysts expect the market to keep rising.
Oil prices
Oil prices sank more than a dollar a barrel on Friday as the dollar rose and speculators booked profits from a robust surge. Crude benchmarks recorded their third-straight weekly increase. Brent crude prices declined $1.49, or 1.8 percent, to $79.87 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.47, or 1.9 percent, to $75.42.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, told Reuters that falling inflation, plans to refill the US strategic reserve, supply cuts, and disruptions might help the market next week.
Tech view
According to market pandits the banking and IT group would set the trend. A convincing closure above 31,600 in the Nifty IT index and sustainability over 44,500 in the Nifty Bank would boost momentum.
After a week of consolidation, Nify is ready to challenge 19,750 and reach 20,000. 19,100-19,3000 cushioned a dip. He advised participants to align their positions while focusing on stock selection and risk management.
India VIX & F&O
Option data showed that the Nifty might reach 20,000 in the next weeks, but in the short term, 19,600-19,700 may operate as resistance and 19,500-19,300 as support.
Call writing peaked at 19,800 strike, followed by 20,100, 19,600, and 19,700 strikes. On the Put side, the largest open interest was at 19,500 strike, followed by 19,400 and 19,300 strikes. Put writing was at 19,400, 19,500, and 18,900 strikes.
India VIX, which estimates Nifty50 volatility for the next 30 days, fell 2.33 percent from 10.94 to 10.68, the lowest level since December 2019. Bulls benefit from low VIX volatility.
World markets
Global markets have rallied, boosting domestic sentiment. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose 2.3, 2.4, and 3.3 percent, respectively, last week. S&P 500 is gained 17% year-to-date.
Mishra said that a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) breach over 34,600 will enhance sentiment.
HDFC Bank
On Monday, HDFC Bank will list the fresh shares it allotted to HDFC stockholders.
HDFC eligible shareholders received over 311 crore additional equity shares from the bank on Friday.
RIL-JFS
Reliance Industries shares will trade early in the week before the record date for RIL stockholders to receive shares of Reliance Strategic Investments.
RIL will determine eligible shareholders for share allotment on July 20. RIL shareholders will receive one Reliance Strategic Investments share every conglomerate share under the demerger.
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