Key Events are inflation data is expected to maintain the trend set by the US CPI report, unless significant surprises occur.
Monday – April 15
PBoC
The PBoC is set to maintain the MLF rate at 2.50%, despite strong PMIs and strong CPI figures, despite a significant deflationary threat, and may consider policy rate adjustments.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales M/M is expected to be 0.3% vs. 0.6%, with Retail Sales ex-Autos at 0.4%. Despite volatility, stable spending and labor market resilience suggest continued activity. Market reaction may fade if misses occur.
Key Events on watch
US
- 2:30 AM ET                  Fed’s Logan Speaks on Panel in Tokyo
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Empire Manufacturing for April
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M for March
- 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos for March
- 8:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks
- 10:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories M/M for February
- 10:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index for April
Global
- New Zealand Services PMI,
- Eurozone Industrial Production,
- US Retail Sales,
- US NAHB Housing Market Index,
- PBoC MLF.
Tuesday – April 16
UK Unemployment Rate
The UK Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 3.9%, with market pricing likely to remain stable unless significant surprises are expected due to the upcoming UK CPI report.
Canada Inflation
The Canadian central bank has removed a line from its statement expressing concern about the inflation outlook, indicating a dovish move. The market expects the BoC to cut rates in June, but the central bank must maintain the disinflationary trend.
Key Events on watch
US
7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET Housing Starts M/M for March
8:30 AM ET Building Permits M/M for March
8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
9:00 AM ET Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Monetary Policy
9:15 AM ET Industrial Production M/M for March
8:30 AM ET Capacity Utilization for March
4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- China Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
- Eurozone ZEW,
- US Housing Starts and Building Permits,
- US Industrial Production.
Wednesday – April 17
New Zealand CPI
The New Zealand CPI is expected to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period, with the RBNZ dropping the tightening bias and expecting to normalize policy in 2025, with the first rate cut expected in August.
UK CPI
The UK CPI Y/Y is expected to rise to 3.1%, with the M/M measure at 0.0.4% and the Core CPI at 4.3%. The BoE is concerned about the 6.1% Services Inflation rate, and a rate cut in June is unlikely.
Key Events on watch
7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET Housing Starts M/M for March
8:30 AM ET Building Permits M/M for March
8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
9:00 AM ET Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Monetary Policy 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production M/M for March
8:30 AM ET Capacity Utilization for March
4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Thursday – April 18
The Australian Labour Market report
The Australian Labour Market report predicts 15.5K jobs added in March, higher unemployment rate to 3.9%, and no significant changes in the market due to rate cuts in November.
US Jobless Claims
US Jobless Claims are crucial weekly indicators of the labor market’s state, as a weakening market is more likely to lead to disinflation. Initial Claims are hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm at 1800K. No consensus exists.
Key Events on watch
8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
8:30 AM ET Philly Fed Business Index for April
9:15 AM ET Fed’s Bowman Speaks at SIFMA Roundtable
9:15 AM ET Fed’s Williams Participates in Moderated Discussion
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales M/M for March
10:00 AM ET Leading Index M/M for March
10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
11:00 AM ET Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Fireside Chat on Economy
5:45 PM ET Fed’s Bostic Chats About Economy, Monetary Policy
Friday – April 19
Japanese Core CPI
The Japanese Core CPI is expected to rise to 2.6% Y/Y, with no consensus on other measures. The BoJ supports the current rate, with potential for another hike in July or October.
Key Events on watch
10:30 AM ET Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Q&A
1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data