Key Events is filled with significant events such as the US ISM PMIs, Eurozone CPI, Fed Chair Powell, and US jobs data.
Monday – July 01
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 49.0, with S&P Global PMI increasing to 51.7, indicating the fastest economic expansion in over two years. The survey showed job gains due to improved business optimism, and selling price inflation has cooled to one of the lowest levels in four years, aligning with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
US
- 9:45Â AMÂ ETÂ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, June-Final
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M for May
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ ISMÂ Manufacturing PMI for June
Global
- Â China Caixin Manufacturing PMI,
- Swiss Retail Sales,
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday – July 02
Eurozone CPI
The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected to be 2.5% vs. 2.6%, while the Core CPI Y/Y is 2.8% vs. 2.9%. The ECB will wait for data during summer before deciding on a rate cut in September. Market expects 46 bps of easing by year-end.
US Job Openings
US Job Openings are expected to decrease to 7.850M, the lowest level since February 2021, and close to pre-pandemic levels. This is positive for the Fed as the labour market rebalances, reducing layoffs and easing inflationary pressures.
Fed Speech
Fed Chair Powell’s stance on inflation will depend on July’s good report, which could lead to a more dovish stance. If August’s figures are positive, Powell may pre-commit to a rate cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
US
- 7:45Â AMÂ ETÂ ICSCÂ Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:55Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ JOLTSÂ Job Openings for May
- 4:30Â PMÂ ETÂ APIÂ Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- RBA Meeting Minutes,
- Eurozone CPI,
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate,
- Canada Manufacturing PMI,
- US Job Openings,
- Fed Chair Powell.
Other Key Events:
- China Caixin Services PMI for June
Wednesday –July 03
US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims release is crucial for monitoring the labor market’s state. Initial Claims are hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims have been rising. Initial Claims are expected at 235K, with no consensus on Continuing Claims.
Key Events on watch
US
- U.S. Markets early close at 1:00Â PMÂ ETÂ in observance of Fourth of July Holiday
7:00Â AMÂ ETÂ MBAÂ Mortgage Applications Data
- 7:00 AM ET           Fed’s Williams Speaks on Panel at ECB Forum
- 7:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Layoffs for June
- 8:15Â AMÂ ETÂ ADPÂ Private Payroll Employment for June
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â International Trade for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Jobless Claims
- 9:45Â AMÂ ETÂ S&P Global Composite PMI June-Final
- 9:45Â AMÂ ETÂ S&P Global Services PMI June-Final
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders M/M for May
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ ISMÂ Non-Manufacturing PMI for June
- 10:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 2:00Â PMÂ ETÂ FOMCÂ Meeting Minutes
Global
- Australia Retail Sales,
- China Caixin Services PMI,
- Swiss Manufacturing PMI,
- Eurozone PPI,
- US ADP,
- US Jobless Claims,
- US ISM Services PMI,
- FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Other Key Events:
- RBC Capital European Consumer Conference 7/3, in London
Thursday – July 04
 Swiss CPI
The Swiss Central Bank (SNB) expects a 1.4% Y/Y CPI and 0.1% M/M measure, with interest rates cut to 1.25% and lowered inflation forecasts. The SNB is prepared to intervene in the FX market if inflation surprises or overshoots projections. The market expects one rate cut in 2024, with a 62% probability of a September cut.
Key Events on watch
USA
- U.S. Markets closed for Independence Day holiday
Global
- US Holiday,
- Swiss Unemployment Rate,
- Swiss CPI,
- ECB Meeting Minutes,
- Canada Services PMI,
- UK General Election.
Friday –July 05
Canadian labour market
The Canadian labour market report predicts 25K jobs added in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.3%. The key focus is wage growth, which reached 5.1%. The Canadian CPI showed positive inflation, reducing rate cuts expectations. The BoC will need strong CPI figures for a rate cut in July.
US NFP
The US NFP predicts 180K jobs added in June, unchanged unemployment rate at 4.0%, and an average hourly earnings M/M of 0.3%. The Fed is focused on the labor market, fearing a quick deterioration and potential rate cuts if unemployment rises to 4.2%.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 5:40 AM ET                  Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Payrolls for June
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Private Payrolls for June
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Payrolls for June
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate for June
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June
- 1:00Â PMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Global
- Eurozone Retail Sales,
- Canada Labour Market report,
- US NFP.
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