Key Events is expected to be more tranquil in terms of data, with the main event being the UK CPI.
Monday – July 15
PBoC
The PBoC is aiming to improve its interest rate corridor effectiveness by maintaining the MLF rate at 2.50%, introducing a new cash management mechanism, and implementing a seven-day reverse repo rate.
US
- 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing for July
- 12:00 PM Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David Rubenstein
- 4:35 PM Fed’s Daly Speaks in Q&A on Economy, Tech
Global
- New Zealand Services PMI,
- PBoC MLF,
- China Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
- Eurozone Industrial Production,
- BoC Business Outlook Survey,
- Fed Chair Powell
Other events
- JMP Securities Technology Forum 7/15, in CA
- Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI
Tuesday – July 16
Canadian CPI
The Canadian CPI is expected to rise to 2.8% and 2.7% in the coming months, with a 78% chance of a rate cut in July, despite wage growth reaching 5.6% in the last report.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales M/M is expected to be 0.0% vs. 0.1%, with Ex-Autos M/M at 0.1%. Consumer spending remains stable, but weakness in UMich Consumer Sentiment suggests a slight softening.
US
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales M/M for June
- 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales Less Autos M/M for June
- 8:30 AM ET Import/Export Prices M/M for June
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories M/M for May
- 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for July
- 2:45 PM ET Fed’s Kugler Speaks at NABE Conference
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- Eurozone ZEW,
- Canada CPI,
- US Retail Sales,
- US NAHB Housing Market Index.
Other Key Events:
- Amazon’s annual Prime Day event to take place July 16th and 17th
- Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI
Wednesday –July 17
New Zealand’s Q2 CPI
New Zealand’s Q2 CPI is expected to be 3.5% Y/Y and 0.6% Q/Q, with the RBNZ keeping the OCR at 5.5%, causing increased expectations of rate cuts.
UK CPI
The UK CPI Y/Y is expected to be 2.0% higher than previously predicted, with the M/M measure at 0.1% and the Core CPI at 3.4%. The market’s 60% chance of a rate cut in August has been reduced to 50%, with the central bank chief economist stating the timing is uncertain.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 8:30 AM ET Housing Starts M/M for June
- 8:30 AM ET Building Permits M/M for June
- 9:00 AM ET Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economy, Q&A
- 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production M/M for June
- 9:15 AM ET Capacity Utilization June
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes
- 2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Global
- New Zealand Q2 CPI,
- UK CPI,
- US Housing Starts and Building Permits,
- US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization,
- Fed’s Waller,
- Fed Beige Book.
Other Key Events:
- Amazon’s annual Prime Day event to take place July 16th and 17th
- Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI
Thursday – July 18
Australian Labour Market report
The Australian Labour Market report predicts 20K jobs added in June, unchanged unemployment rate at 4.0%, with policy expectations awaiting Q2 CPI report on July 31st.
UK Labour Market
The UK Labour Market report predicts 45K jobs added in June, unchanged unemployment rate at 4.4%, and a focus on wage growth. Softening wage growth or poor job figures could increase expectations for easing with 49 bps of cuts by year-end.
ECB
The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.75%, with the next open meeting in September, and the market anticipates an additional 46 bps of easing by year-end.
US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims report shows steady Initial Claims at cycle lows, while Continuing Claims have been rising, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.
Initial Claims are expected to be 235K this week, while Continuing Claims are uncertain. This week’s reading saw a drop from 1856K to 1852K.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Philly Fed Index M/M for June
- 10:00 AM ET Leading Index Change M/M for June
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 1:45 PM ET Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks
- 4:00 PM ET Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 6:05 PM ET Fed’s Daly Participates in Fireside Chat
- 7:15 PM ET Fed’s Bowman Gives Keynote Address
Global
- Australia Labour Market report,
- UK Labour Market report,
- ECB Policy Decision,
- US Jobless Claims.
Republican National Convention 7/15-7/18, in Milwaukee, WI
Friday –July 19
Japanese Core CPI
The Japanese Core CPI is expected to be 2.7% Y/Y, with inflation at target. A rate hike is unlikely due to Japan’s decades of inflation goal. The BoJ is expected to trim bond purchases.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 10:40 AM Fed’s Williams Speaks on Panel on Monetary Policy
- 1:00 PM Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Global
- Japan CPI,
- UK Retail Sales,
- Canada Retail Sales.
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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.