Key Events will be characterized by a high volume of discussions on the monetary policy announcements of the RBA, SNB, and the BoE.
Monday – June 17
Empire Fed Manufacturing
On Monday, the focus in the U.S. will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Tuesday brings the monetary policy announcement from Australia. In the U.S., we will receive the retail sales m/m data and industrial production m/m.
PBoC
The PBoC is expected to maintain its 1-year MLF rate at 2.50% during its Medium-term Lending Facility operation next week. The benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates will remain at their current levels of 3.45% and 3.95%. The central bank has not made any adjustments to the benchmark Loan Prime Rates, as it has kept its daily open market operations modest. Recent mixed data, including exports and imports, supports the case for no adjustments. Future policy action is unlikely due to economic concerns in China, trade-related frictions, and the deterioration of the property sector and developer debt crisis. However, the central bank has pledged to improve macro-prudential management of real estate finance and support state firms in buying existing homes.
Chinese Data
The Chinese economy is expected to see a 3.0% increase in retail sales, 6.4% increase in industrial output, and 4.2% increase in urban investments. However, manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in May, with the official PMI dropping to 49.5. The IMF revised its China growth forecast to 5% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, but warned that the property sector remains a significant risk. Retail sales growth was the slowest since December 2022, with auto sales and household appliances declining. Fixed asset investment growth moderated to 4.2% Y/Y, with public sector investment increasing by 7.4% Y/Y.
US
- 8:30 AM ET Empire Fed Manufacturing for June
- 1:00 PM ET Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook
Global
- PBoC MLF,
- Chinese Activity Data (May),
- EZ Wages and Labour Costs (Q1)
Tuesday – June 18
US retail sales
US retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3% M/M in May, with ex-autos measures rising by 0.2%. Bank of America’s data shows stable consumer spending momentum.
RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its current cash rate of 4.35% at its next meeting, with a 97% chance of keeping rates at the current level and a 3% probability of a 25bps cut. The RBA remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and is not ruling anything in or out. The board raised its inflation forecasts for 2024 but trimmed its expectations for GDP and unemployment. The RBA’s forecasts assumed rates will stay at 4.35% until mid-2025, nine months longer than previously assumed. The board expressed limited tolerance for inflation returning to the target later than 2026 and acknowledged that a rate rise could be appropriate if forecasts proved overly optimistic. Recent mixed data releases support the case to remain on hold.
US
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales M/M for May
- 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for May
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production M/M for May
- 9:15 AM ET Capacity Utilization for May
- 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories M/M for April
- 10:00 AM ET Fed’s Barkin Discusses US Economy, Fed
- 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $6B in 20-year notes.
- 1:00 PM ET Fed’s Logan Speaks in Q&A
- 1:00 PM ET Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy
- 2:00 PM ET Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Panel Discussion
- 4:00 PM ET Net Long-term TIC Flows for April
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- RBA Announcement,
- NBH Announcement,
- EZ Final CPI (May),
- German ZEW Survey (Jun),
- US Retail Sales (May),
- Japanese Trade Balance (May)
Wednesday –June 19
UK CPI
UK inflation expectations for May are for CPI Y/Y to print at 2.0%, slightly above the MPC’s forecast of 1.9%. Prior releases saw headline inflation slip to 2.3%, core decline to 3.9%, and services tick lower to 5.9%.
New Zealand’s GDP
Westpac predicts a 0.2% Q/Q decline in New Zealand’s GDP for Q1 2024, contrasting with RBNZ’s 0.2% rise, suggesting the economy is moving into “cool” territory.
Key Events on watch
US
- U.S. stock markets closed
Earnings
- Broadcom
- Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY),
- Oxford Industries (OXM),
- Torrid Holdings (CURV),
- Zhihu (ZH),
- Vera Bradley (VRA),
- Affimed N.V. (AFMD),
- Coda Octopus Group (CODA)
Global
- BoC Minutes,
- BCB Announcement,
- UK Inflation (May),
- New Zealand GDP (Q1)
Thursday – June 20
BoE Announcement
The BoE is expected to maintain its current 5.25% Base Rate, with a 10% chance of success, following a 25bps cut in the previous meeting and a policy statement promoting long-term monetary policy.
SNB Announcement
SNB plans to cut from current 1.50% rate or wait for Q3 inflation. Pricing is in favor of SNB cutting at June meeting, with 60% chance of this happening.
Norges Bank
Norges Bank plans to maintain rates unchanged, with the first cut expected at the end of 2024, citing potential longer-term monetary stance based on current data.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Current Account for Q1
- 8:30 AM ET Housing Starts M/M for May
- 8:30 AM ET Building Permits M/M for May
- 8:30 AM ET Philly Fed Business Survey for June
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 4:00 PM ET Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
Other Key events
- JMP Medical Devices and Healthcare Services Forum, 6/20, in Boston, MA
Earnings
- Adobe
Global
- BoE Announcement,
- PBoC LPR Announcement,
- SNB Announcement & Press Conference,
- Norges Bank Announcement & Press Conference,
- German Producer Prices (May),
- US Philly Fed Survey (Jun)
Friday –June 21
Tokyo CPI
Tokyo CPI rose to 2.2% Y/Y in May, meeting market expectations. Core inflation increased to 1.9% Y/Y, excluding fresh food. Utility prices impacted higher fees, rising 4.7% in May.
UK Flash PMI
UK Flash PMI releases after the BoE, providing anecdotal commentary on the economy. Services PMI is expected to rise slightly to 53.0, while Manufacturing and Composite have no expectations. S&P Global suggests UK services inflation is above pre-pandemic trends, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s policy easing.
US Flash PMI
US Flash PMIS (Fri) reveals Manufacturing at 51.3, Services at 54.8, and Composite at 54.5, with no expectations. Traders will analyze the release for growth, inflation, wages, and sentiment commentary.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing, PMI Flash
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services, PMI Flash
- 10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales M/M for May
- 10:00 AM ET Leading Index M/M for May
- 1:00 PM EST Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Other Key events
- American Diabetes Association (ADA) Conference, 6/21-6/24, in Chicago, IL
Earnings
- None
Global
- Australian PMIs (Jun),
- Japanese CPI (May),
- UK Retail Sales (May),
- EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jun),
- Canadian PPI (May)
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