Key Events focus will be on the US Jobless Claims data is expected to be the most significant release this week due to concerns about the US labour market sparked by the US NFP report.
Monday – Aug 5
US ISM Services PMI Expected at 51.0 vs. 48.8
- Survey has been fluctuating since 2022, with no clear signals.
- S&P Global US Services PMI reached highest level in 28 months.
- Average price increase for goods and services has slowed, aligning with Fed’s 2% target.
Key Events on watch
US
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite Final July-P
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, July-F
- 10:00 AM ET Employment Trends for July
- 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July
- 2:00 PM ET Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
- 5:00 PM ET Fed’s Daly Speaks in Moderated Discussion
Global
- China Caixin Services PMI
- Eurozone PPI
- US ISM Services PMI
- Fed’s SLOOS
Tuesday – Aug 6
Japanese Average Cash Earnings Expected at 2.3% Y/Y
- Increase from 1.9% prior.
- BoJ hiked interest rates by 15 bps.
- Governor Ueda suggests more rate hikes if data supports.
RBA’s Expected Cash Rate: 4.35%
- RBA maintains hawkish tone due to inflation stickiness.
- Market often anticipates rate hikes.
- Australian Q2 CPI lowered expectations, leading to rate cuts.
- 32 bps of easing expected by year-end.
- Increase due to soft US NFP report.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30 AM ET International Trade for June
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- Japan Average Cash Earnings,
- RBA Policy Decision,
- Swiss Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales,
- Eurozone Retail Sales,
- Canada Services PMI.
Wednesday –Aug 7
New Zealand Unemployment Rate and Job Growth Expectations
- Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 4.7% from 4.3%.
- Job Growth Q/Q expected to be -0.3% from -0.2%.
- Labour Cost Index expected to be 3.5% from 3.8%.
- Q/Q measure expected to be 0.8% from 0.8%.
- Market expects rate cuts to occur sooner than RBNZ’s forecasts.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
- 3:00 PM ET Consumer Credit for June
Global
- New Zealand Labour Market report,
- BoC Minutes.
Thursday – Aug 08
US Jobless Claims: A Crucial Indicator of Labor Market
- Important release in a market concerned after Friday’s soft jobs data.
- Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022, climbing towards upper bound.
- Continuing Claims have been on sustained rise, reaching another cycle high last week.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
- 10:00 AM ET Wholesale Inventory M/M for June
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year
- 3:00 PM ET Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Fireside Chat
Global
- BoJ Summary of Opinions,
- US Jobless Claims.
Friday –Aug 09
Canadian Labour Market Report:
- Expected 25K jobs added in July vs -1.4K prior.
- Unemployment Rate remains at 6.4%.
- BoC cut interest rates to 4.50%, signaling further rate cuts.
- Market pricing 80 bps of easing by year-end.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Global
- China CPI,
- Canada Labour Market report.
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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.