Key Events shows Flash PMIs, the US Consumer Confidence, the RBA and SNB rate decisions and the US Jobless Claims.
Monday – Sep 23
Monday will be the Flash PMIs Day for many major economies with the Eurozone, UK and US PMIs being the main highlights:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.6 expected vs. 45.8 prior.
- Eurozone Services PMI: 52.1 expected vs. 52.9 prior.
- UK Manufacturing PMI: 52.5 expected vs. 52.5 prior.
- UK Services PMI: 53.5 expected vs. 53.7 prior.
- US Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 expected vs. 47.9 prior.
- US Services PMI: 55.3 expected vs. 55.7 prior.
Key Events on watch
US
- 8:00 AM ET Fed’s Bostic Gives Speech on Economic Outlook
- 8:30 AM ET National Activity index for August
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept flash
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept flash
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite, Sept flash
- 10:15 AM ET Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Fireside Chat
Global
- Japan on Holiday,
- Australia/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs.
Other key events
- BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
- Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Scottsdale, AZ
- RBC Capital Pharmaceutical CDMO & Bioprocessing Conference, 9/23-9/24
Tuesday – Sep 24
RBA
- RBA’s Expected Cash Rate: 4.35%
- Maintained hawkish stance amid high inflation.
- First rate cut expected in February 2025.
- Total easing expected at 101 bps by year-end.
US Consumer Confidence
- US Consumer Confidence Expected at 103.8 vs 103.3
- Consumer confidence rose in August, but remained within narrow range.
- Mixed feelings expressed in August: more positive about business conditions, more concerned about labor market.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:00 AM ET Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
- 9:00 AM ET CaseShiller 20 City index for July
- 10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence for September
- 10:00 AM ET Richmond Fed Index for September
- 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- Japan Flash PMI,
- RBA Policy Decision,
- German IFO,
- US Consumer Confidence.
Other key events
- BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
- Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Scottsdale, AZ
- Oppenheimer Innovating Sustainability Summit, 9/24
- RBC Capital Pharmaceutical CDMO & Bioprocessing Conference, 9/23-9/24
- RBC Capital Global Communications Infrastructure Conference 9/24-9/25, in Chicago, IL
- RBC Capital Global Industrials Conference 9/24-9/25, in Las Vegas
Wednesday –Sep 25
Australian Monthly CPI
- Australian Monthly CPI Expected at 3.1% Y/Y
- Expected increase from 3.5% prior.
- RBA Governor Bullock predicts more data to confirm inflation return to target.
- Release unlikely to alter inflation outlook unless significant deviations occur.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 10:00 AM ET New Home Sales M/M for August
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 1:00 PM ET U.S> treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes
Global
- Australia Monthly CPI.
Other Key Events:
- BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
- Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Scottsdale, AZ
- RBC Capital Global Communications Infrastructure Conference 9/24-9/25, in Chicago, IL
- RBC Capital Global Industrials Conference 9/24-9/25, in Las Vegas
Thursday – Sep 26
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Expected Rate Cut
- SNB expected to cut rates by 25 bps, bringing policy rate to 1.00%.
- Market predicts a 45% probability of a larger 50 bps cut due to unexpected inflation drop to 1.1%.
- SNB’s Jordan stated that Swiss Franc strength is affecting Swiss industry.
- High likelihood of a 50 bps cut or currency intervention threat.
US Jobless Claims Weekly Update
- Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
- Continuing Claims have shown sustained rise in the last weeks.
- This week’s Initial Claims expected at 225K, a decrease from 219K.
- No consensus on Continuing Claims at this time, with a previous drop to 1829K.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 Final
- 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending Q2 final
- 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator Q2 final
- 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices for Q2 final
- 8:30 AM ET Core PCE Prices for Q2 final
- 8:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders for August
- 9:10 AM ET Fed’s Collins, Kugler Participate in Fireside Chat
- 9:25 AM ET Fed’s Williams Gives Remarks at Conference
- 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales M/M for August
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 10:30 AM ET Fed’s Barr Gives Remarks at Conference
- 11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for September
- 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes
Global
- SNB Policy Decision
- US Durable Goods Orders
- US Q2 Final GDP
- US Jobless Claims.
Other Key Events:
- BMO Capital Dallas & Austin Property Tour, 9/24-9/27, in Dallas, Tx
- Goldman Sachs European Real Estate Equity and Debt Conference, 9/26, in London
- Oppenheimer Oncology Summit at MD Anderson, 9/26
Friday –Sep 27
Tokyo Core CPI
- Tokyo Core CPI Expected to Increase to 2.0% Y/Y
- Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator for National CPI, making it more important for market than National figure.
- BoJ policy decision unchanged, Governor Ueda dovish due to decreased upside price risks from recent FX moves.
US PCE Y/Y Expectations
- Expected at 2.3% vs. 2.5% prior.
- M/M figure at 0.1% vs. 0.2% prior.
- Core PCE Y/Y expected at 2.7% vs. 2.6% prior.
- M/M reading at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
- PCE estimates reliable once CPI and PPI are out.
- Fed’s Waller expects 0.14% on Core M/M measure.
- Inflation data less important due to Fed’s focus on labour market.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ET Personal Income for August
- 8:30 AM ET Personal Spending for August
- 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Index M/M for August
- 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Index Y/Y for August
- 8:30 AM ET Core-PCE Prices Index M/M for August
- 8:30 AM ET Core-PCE Prices Index Y/Y for August
- 8:30 AM ET Advance Goods Trade Balance for August
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan Confidence, Sept-Final
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, Sept-final
- 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Global
- Tokyo CPI,
- Canada GDP,
- US PCE.
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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.