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HomeWeekly newsKey Events in the Week Ahead: Swiss CPI , US Job Openings, BoC...

Key Events in the Week Ahead: Swiss CPI , US Job Openings, BoC and the ECB decisions, ISM Services PMI highlight the releases and events.

Key Events are The week ahead is filled with the release of numerous top-tier economic data and policy decisions from the BoC and the ECB.

Monday – June 03

Key Events on watch

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is anticipated at 49.8 vs. 49.4. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.4 vs. 51.1 and overall the study showed that business activity surged to a two-year high. The figures also showed that “both input costs and output prices climbed at quicker rates, with manufacturing having taken over as the dominant source of price increases over the preceding two months.” However, “the overall rate of selling price inflation remained below the average seen over the past year”.

US

  • 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Final-May
  • 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for April
  • 10:00 AM ET                ISM Manufacturing PMI for May

Earnings

  • holiday

Global

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI,
  • Swiss Manufacturing PMI,
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI,
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Tuesday – June 04

Swiss CPI M/M

The Swiss CPI M/M is projected at 0.4% vs. 0.3% previous. The recent data surpassed expectations with the Y/Y rate coming in at 1.4% vs. 1.1% predicted yet the rate was still within the SNB’s estimates. A rate cut in June is practically a coinflip, but a downside surprise should see the market feeling a bit more optimistic for another cut.

SNB’s Chairman Jordan also noted that if upward threats to Swiss inflation were to materialise, these would most likely be associated with a lower franc, which might be counteracted by selling foreign exchange reserves (purchasing CHF). Therefore, an upside surprise would provide the Swiss Franc a stronger boost as the market should price out both the possibilities of a rate drop in June and expect the central bank to prop up the currency.

US Job Openings

The US Job Openings are predicted to dip to 8.350M vs. 8.488M previously. The recent data indicated one again a reduction as the labour market continues to come into better equilibrium. The quits rate has also lowered to a new cycle low and that should be good news for inflation as it normally leads pay growth.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:45 AM ET                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for April
  • 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods M/M for April
  • 10:00 AM ET                JOLTs Job Openings for April
  • 4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Other Key Events on watch

  • Goldman Sachs Electrify Europe: Utilities and Clean Energy Conference, 5/28-5/29, in London.
  • Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference, 5/28-5/30, in New York
  • Keybanc Industrials and Basic Materials Conference 5/28-5/30, in Boston, MA

Earnings

  • Box (BOX),
  • CAVA Group (CAVA),
  • Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)

Global

  •  Swiss CPI,
  • US Job Openings.


Wednesday –June 05

BoC

The BoC is projected to decrease rates from 5.00% to 4.75%. The market-based probability soared to 80% possibility following the lackluster Canadian GDP figures. The expectations were already leaning toward a rate decrease after the previous Canadian CPI report where the BoC’s preferred underlying inflation indicators surprised to the downside and finally fell inside the 1-3% target zone. The central bank will likely refrain from pre-committing to another rate cut and emphasize that it will be contingent on the data.

US ISM Services PMI

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to be 50.5, beating expectations by a significant margin. The focus is likely on the employment sub-index before the NFP report.

Key Events on watch

US

  • 7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:15 AM ET                  ADP Private Payrolls for May
  • 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Composite PMI, May-Final
  • 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Services PMI, May-Final
  • 10:00 AM ET                ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Earnings

  • Salesforce (CRM),
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS),
  • Chewy (CHWY),
  • HP Inc. (HPQ),
  • Pure Storage (PSTG),
  • Capri Holdings (CPRI)
  • Okta (OKTA).
  • C3.ai (AI)
  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) .

Global

  • Japan Average Cash Earnings,
  • Australia GDP,
  • China Caixin Services PMI,
  • Eurozone PPI,
  • US ADP,
  • Canada Services PMI,
  • BoC Policy Decision,
  • US ISM Services PMI.

Thursday – June 06

ECB

The ECB is set to cut interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75%, a move influenced by strong economic data and a strong labor market. Policymakers may be cautious due to the abating inflation pressures, with two more rate cuts expected this year.

US Jobless Claims

US Jobless Claims are crucial weekly indicators of the labor market’s state, as a weakening market is more likely to lead to disinflation. Initial Claims are expected to be 215K this week, while Continuing Claims remain stable at 1800K.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 7:30 AM ET                  Challenger Layoffs for May
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for April
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Productivity for Q1
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Unit Labor Costs for Q1
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Other Key events

  • Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Global Financial Services Conference, 5/29-5/30 in New York
  • Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference, 5/28-5/30, in New York
  • Jefferies Software Conference, 5/29-5/30, in Newport, CA
  • Keybanc Industrials and Basic Materials Conference 5/28-5/30, in Boston, MA
  • TD Cowen 52nd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, 5/29-5/30, in New York
  • China NBS Manufacturing and Services for May

Earnings

Global

  • Swiss Unemployment Rate,
  • Eurozone Retail Sales,
  • ECB Policy Decision,
  • US Jobless Claims.

Friday –June 07

US NFP

The US NFP predicts 180K jobs added in May, unchanged unemployment rate at 3.9%, and an average hourly earnings of 3.9% Y/Y. Positive labour market data, including a slowdown in job losses, strong US Jobless Claims, and rebounding consumer confidence, suggests a good release.

Key Events on watch

USA

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Payrolls for May
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for May
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for May
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for May
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for May
  • 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for April
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
  • 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for April

Other Key events

American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), 5/31-6/4, in Chicago, IL

Earnings

  • Genesco GCO)
  • Frontline (FRO).

Global

  • US NFP,
  • Canada Labour Market report.

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