Key Events is expected to be more tranquil in terms of data, with the main event being the US CPI.
Monday – July 08
US
- 10:00Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Employment Trends for June
- 3:00Â PMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Credit for May
Global
- Â Japan Wage data.
Other events
SEMICon West, 7/9-7/11
Tuesday – July 09
Powell speech
Fed Chair Powell is set to testify to the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee, focusing on the monetary policy trajectory following the recent NFP report.
The market will focus on the Q&A session following Powell’s opening remarks, with recent data suggesting a dovish stance.
US
- 6:00Â AMÂ Â NFIBÂ Small Business Optimism for June
- 7:45Â AM Â ICSCÂ Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:55Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 1:00Â PMÂ Â USÂ Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
- 4:30Â PMÂ Â APIÂ Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- Fed Chair Powell Testimony.
Other Key Events:
- SEMICon West, 7/9-7/11
- China CPI M/M and Y/Y and PPI Y/Y for June
Wednesday –July 10
RBNZ
The RBNZ is expected to maintain interest rates at 5.5%, with the market anticipating 41 bps of easing by the end of the year.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00Â AM MBAÂ Mortgage Applications Data
- 10:00 AM         Fed’s Powell to testify at House Panel
- 10:00Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventory M/M for May
- 10:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 1:00Â PMÂ Â USÂ Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
- 2:30 PM               Fed’s Goolsbee, Bowman Give Opening Remarks at Childcare Event
Global
- Japan PPI,
- China CPI
- RBNZ Policy Decision
- Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Other Key Events:
- SEMICon West, 7/9-7/11
- 16th Annual CEO Investor Summit 2024 – San Francisco
- China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance data for June
Thursday – July 11
US CPI
The US CPI Y/Y is expected to be 3.1% higher than the prior year, while the M/M measure is 0.1% higher. If the Fed receives a positive report, it is expected to be more dovish at the next meeting.
US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims report shows steady Initial Claims at cycle lows, while Continuing Claims have been rising, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring. Initial Claims are expected to be 240K this week, while Continuing Claims are expected to be 1860K.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y
- 8:30Â AM Â CPIÂ Core (ex: food & energy) M/M for June
- 8:30Â AM Â CPIÂ Core (ex: food & energy) Y/Y for June
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Claims
- 10:30Â AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Cleveland Fed CPI for June
- 11:30 AM                Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Moderated Q&A
- 1:00 PM                  Fed’s Musalem Speaks in Q&A on Economy
- 1:00Â PMÂ Â USÂ Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes
- 2:00Â PMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Federal budget for June
Global
- UK GDP
- US CPI
- US Jobless Claims
Friday –July 12
US PPI
The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y
- 8:30Â AMÂ Â PPIÂ Core (ex: food & energy) M/M for June
- 8:30Â AM PPIÂ Core (ex: food & energy) Y/Y for June
- 10:00Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â University of Michigan Confidence, July-Prelim
- 10:00Â AMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation
- 12:00 AM WASDE Ag report for July            Â
- 1:00Â PMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Global
- New Zealand Manufacturing PMI
- US PPI
- US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.