Key Events include US CPI, retail sales data, China inflation, PBoC MLF, Australian and UK jobs reports, and Japanese GDP.
Monday – May 12
New Zealand Services PMI
The RBNZ’s quarterly Survey of Expectations is set to release on 13th, with business leaders and forecasters predicting a decrease in inflation. The RBNZ maintained its hawkish-leaning tone at its April 10th meeting, maintaining the OCR at 5.50%. The committee believes maintaining this level will return consumer price inflation to within the 1%-3% target range this year.
Key Events on watch
US
- 9:00 AM Fed’s Mester, Jefferson Discuss Central Bank Communications
Earnings
- Petrobras (PBR),
- Tencent Music (TME),
- Agilysys (AGYS).
- Terawulf (WULF)
- Hyzon Motors (HYZN)
Global
- New Zealand Services PMI.
Tuesday – May 13
US PPI
The US PPI M/M is expected to be 0.2% higher than the prior rate, with the market likely to focus on the upcoming US CPI report, potentially triggering defensive positioning.
UK Unemployment Rate
The UK Jobs Report predicts a rise in unemployment to 4.3% in the 3M period to March, with headline wages to slip to 5.5% from 5.6%. The ex-bonus figure is expected to drop to 5.9% from 6.0%. Analysts predict a 20K month-to-month rise in payroll employment in April. Policymakers are focusing on wage growth and if any cooling will ease policy, with a June reduction priced at 48%.
Key Events on watch
US
- 6:00 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NFIB Small Business Optimism for April
- 7:45 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for April
- 8:30 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y for April
- 8:30 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core (ex: food and energy) M/M
- 8:30 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core (ex: food and energy) Y/Y
- 8:55 AM Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 10:00 AM                 Fed Chair Powell, ECB’s Knot Speak
- 4:30 PMÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â API Weekly Inventory Data
Earnings
- Home Depot (HD),
- Alibaba (BABA),
- Sony (SONY),
- Tencent Holdings (OTCPK:TCEHY),
- Flutter Entertainment (FLUT).
- Rumble (RUM)
- Jack in the Box (JACK)
Global
- Â Japan PPI,
- UK Labour Market Report,
- Eurozone ZEW,
- US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index,
- US PPI,
- Fed Chair Powell speech.
Wednesday – May 14
US CPI
The US CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M, with a market reaction to a downside surprise likely being stronger than an upside. Fed Chair Powell has pushed against rate hikes, stating they need “persuasive” evidence of their policy’s insufficient restrictiveness. The market expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, potentially reducing pricing if another inflation report is released.
Australian Wage Price Index
The Australian Wage Price Index is expected to rise to 1.0% in Q/Q, despite high wage growth and inflation. The RBA is cautious about hawkishness, expecting the first rate cut in Q2 2025, with potential rate hikes this year.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales M/M is expected to be 0.4% vs 0.7%, with ex-Autos M/M at 0.2%. Soft consumer sentiment reports may influence spending, and volatile retail sales data may be ignored.
PBoC
The PBoC is expected to maintain the MLF rate at 2.50% due to positive China data and a lack of urgency in addressing inflation.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for April
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core (ex: food and energy) M/M
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core (ex: food and energy) Y/Y
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Empire Fed Manufacturing for May
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M for April
- 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sale – Less Autos M/M for April
- 10:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories M/M for March
- 10:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index for May
- 10:30 AM ET Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 11:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Cleveland Fed CPI for April
- 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Fireside Chat
- 4:00 PM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Net Long term TIC Flows for March
Earnings
- Cisco Systems (CSCO),
- Grab (GRAB),
- Monday.com (MNDY).
- Spire Global (SPIR)
- Hut 8 (HUT)
Global
- Â Australia Wage Price Index,
- Eurozone Industrial Production,
- US CPI, US Retail Sales,
- US NAHB Housing Market Index,
- PBoC MLF.
Thursday – May 15
US Jobless Claims
US Jobless Claims are crucial for monitoring the labor market’s state, as a weakening economy is more likely to lead to disinflation. Last week’s Initial Claims missed by 231K, the highest since August 2023. This week’s Initial Claims are expected to be 220K, and there’s no consensus on Continuing Claims.
Australian Labour Market
The Australian Labour Market report predicts 25.3K jobs added in April, with a higher unemployment rate. The RBA’s focus on inflation may be hindered by labor market tightness.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Claims
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts M/M for April
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M for April
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Import/Export Prices M/M for April
- 8:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey for May
- 9:15 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M for April
- 9:15 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization for April
- 10:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 10:30 AM ET                Fed’s Harker Speaks on Higher Education, Healthcare
- 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Mester Gives Remarks on Economic Outlook
- 3:50 PM ET                   Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Moderated Chat on Economy
Earnings
- Walmart (WMT)
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- Deere (DE)
- JD.com (JD)
- Baidu (BIDU)
- Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
- Under Armour (UAA)
Global
- Japan GDP
- Australia Labour Market Report
- US Housing Starts and Building Permits
- US Jobless Claims
- US Industrial Production.
Friday – May 16
Chinese retail sales
Chinese retail sales are expected to rise to 3.8% Y/Y, with fixed asset investment rising to 4.6%. Industrial production is currently at 4.5%. The joint release of Chinese GDP and Activity data showed that the former beat expectations in Q1, driven by fixed asset investments. However, industrial capacity utilization slipped to the lowest level since 2020, with concerns over a sharp drop in automobile industry utilization capacity. Manufacturing production levels increased at the fastest pace since May 2023.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 10:00 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators M/M for April
- 1:00 PM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Earnings
AMC Networks (AMCX), Enbridge (ENB).
Global
- New Zealand PPI,
- China Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
- Fed’s Waller speech.
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