Key Events will be US PCE, Biden/Trump debate, Canadian and Aussie inflation data, Riksbank and CBRT rate decisions, and BoJ SOO in Asia.
Monday – June 24
BOJ
The BoJ will release its Summary of Opinions from its June meeting, which could provide insight into board members’ thoughts on bond purchases. Despite defying expectations, the BoJ will decide on a specific bond-buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at its July meeting. The decision on JGB purchases was made by 8-1 vote, with the bank reassessing economic activity and prices in the July 2024 outlook report. The BoJ expects underlying inflation to gradually accelerate.
US
- 10:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for June
- 2:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Daly Gives Remarks on Economy, Policy
Global
- BoJ Summary of Opinions,
- German Ifo Survey (Jun),
- German Import Prices (May)
Other Key Events:
- American Diabetes Association’s (ADA) 84th Scientific Sessions taking place in Orlando, Florida from June 21-24.
- Design Automation Conference (DAC) conference 6/23-6/27, in San Francisco, CA
- Goldman Sachs European Business Services, Transport & Leisure Conference, 6/24-6/26, in London
- Goldman Sachs China Healthcare Corporate Day 2024, 6/24-6/26 (virtual)
- Oppenheimer Novel Targets in Immunology Summit, 6/24, in NY
Tuesday – June 25
Canadian CPI
The Canadian BoC cut rates by 25bps to 4.75% in June, citing easing inflation and confidence in a 2% target. The Governing Council is monitoring core inflation evolution, balance between demand and supply, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behavior, resolute in restoring price stability.
US
- 7:45Â AMÂ ETÂ ICSCÂ Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National Activity Index for May
- 8:55Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Home Prices M/m for April
- 9:00Â AMÂ ETÂ S&P CaseShiller 20-city index for April
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence M/M for June
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Richmond Fed Index M/M for June
- 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Cook Speaks at Economic Club of New York
- 1:00Â PMÂ ETÂ U.S. Treasury to sell 2-yr notes.
- 2:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Bowman Gives Recorded Opening Remarks
- 4:30Â PMÂ ETÂ APIÂ Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- Japanese Services PPI (May),
- Canadian CPI (May),
- UK GDP (Q1)
Other Key Events:
- Design Automation Conference (DAC) conference 6/23-6/27, in San Francisco, CA
- Deutsche Bank Private Software Company Summit, 6/25, in New York
- Goldman Sachs European Business Services, Transport & Leisure Conference, 6/24-6/26, in London
- Goldman Sachs China Healthcare Corporate Day 2024, 6/24-6/26 (virtual)
- Jefferies Shipping 1×1 Summit, 6/25-6/26, in New York
- Northland Growth Virtual Conference 2024, 6/25 (virtual)
- Roth MKM 10th Annual ROTH London Conference, 6/25-6/27, in London
Wednesday –June 26
Australia CPI
Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is expected to rise to 3.8% from 3.6%, revealing the unfolding of services inflation during the June quarter. However, analysts at Westpac note that only 60% of the quarterly CPI is surveyed by the Monthly CPI Indicator, and many components are surveyed only once a year. This could not accurately reflect the quarterly CPI. The RBA maintains a hawkish tone on inflation, stating that it remains above target and easing but at a slower pace.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00Â AMÂ ETÂ MBAÂ Mortgage Applications Data
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales M/M for May
- 10:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 1:00Â PMÂ ETÂ U.S. Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes.
Global
- Â Australian CPI (May),
- German GfK Consumer Sentiment
Other Key Events:
- Design Automation Conference (DAC) conference 6/23-6/27, in San Francisco, CA
- Goldman Sachs European Business Services, Transport & Leisure Conference, 6/24-6/26, in London
- Goldman Sachs China Healthcare Corporate Day 2024, 6/24-6/26 (virtual)
- Jefferies Shipping 1×1 Summit, 6/25-6/26, in New York
- Oppenheimer Montauk Life Sciences Summit, 6/26-6/28, in Montauk, NY
- Roth MKM 10th Annual ROTH London Conference, 6/25-6/27, in London
Thursday – June 27
Riksbank Announcement
Riksbank cut its rate by 25bp to 3.75% in May and advised participants to expect two more cuts during H2-2024 if inflation improves. The bank’s data showed slightly above forecast, but the focus for the June meeting will be on when the repo path indicates the two cuts.
CBRT Announcement
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to maintain its Weekly Repo Rate at 50%, following a wait-and-see mode. The bank’s vigilance is emphasized in monitoring monetary tightening effects on credit conditions and domestic demand. The bank is prepared to tighten monetary policy further if inflation risks increase, aiming to establish disinflation in the second half of the year. CapEco predicts the easing cycle will begin in early 2025, with inflation expected to drop to 38% by year-end.
Biden/Trump debate
The Biden/Trump debate is set to take place on CNN on June 27th. A Fox News poll shows Biden has overtaken Trump for the first time since October, with 50% of respondents voting for him. However, an Ipsos poll suggests Trump would beat Biden 37% to 35% in seven swing states. The debate will focus on the impact of higher tariffs on growth, inflation, and interest rates. Trump’s major policy initiatives are expected to be inflationary, impacting the US trade deficit, curbing immigration, and compromising the Fed’s independence.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Claims
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1-Final
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ GDPÂ Consumer Spending for Q1-Final
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ GDPÂ Price Deflator for Q1-Final
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ PCEÂ Prices for Q1-Final
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Core-PCE Prices for Q1-Final
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders M/M for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Ex: Transports for May
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M for May
- 10:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for June
- 1:00Â PMÂ ETÂ U.S. Treasury to sell 7-year notes.
Other Key events
- First Presidential Debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in Atlanta
- Design Automation Conference (DAC) conference 6/23-6/27, in San Francisco, CA
- Oppenheimer Montauk Life Sciences Summit, 6/26-6/28, in Montauk, NY
- Roth MKM 10th Annual ROTH London Conference, 6/25-6/27, in London
Global
- Biden/Trump debate on CNN,
- Riksbank Announcement,
- CBRT Announcement,
- CNB Announcement,
- European Council,
- Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (May),
- EZ Sentiment Survey (Jun),
- US GDP Final (Q1)
Friday –June 28
Tokyo CPI
Tokyo inflation data for June is expected to indicate the national price trend, with participants monitoring the data to see if there is further acceleration to headline and core inflation readings. In May, headline CPI was firmer-than-expected at 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1%, while Ex. Fresh Food CPI matched estimates at 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9%. Higher electricity charges and food prices excluding perishables contributed to the acceleration. However, underlying inflation is expected to moderate, potentially affecting the central bank’s 2% target.
US PCE
US PCE data showed a slight decrease in May, with CPI and PPI falling to 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively. Inflation modellers predict a core PCE index rise of 0.08-0.13% M/M, resulting in a 2.6% Y/Y core PCE inflation rate. The Fed’s end-of-year inflation forecast was slightly nudged up to 2.6%. Officials welcomed the recent price drop but emphasized the need for further lower inflation data to support rate cuts. The Fed now predicts one rate cut in 2024, but it would only take a few officials endorsing rate cuts to see two reductions this year. Money markets are pricing around 47bps of rate cuts this year.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income M/M for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending M/M for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ET Â PCEÂ Price Inde M/M for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ PCEÂ Price Index Y/Y for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Core PCE Price Inde M/M for May
- 8:30Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for May
- 9:45Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI for June
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â University of Michigan Sentiment, June Final
- 10:00Â AMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â University of Michigan 1 and 5-yr inflation expectations
- 12:00Â PMÂ ETÂ USDAÂ Quarterly Grain report
- 1:00Â PMÂ ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Other Key events
- Oppenheimer Montauk Life Sciences Summit, 6/26-6/28, in Montauk, NY
- Russell Reconstitution Friday June 28th
Global
- Â European Council,
- Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun)/Activity Data (May),
- German Unemployment (Jun),
- US PCE (May),
- US University of Michigan Final (Jun)
Must read book about investing – check here Key Events Key Events Key Events