Key Events in the Week Ahead: US PMI, Jobless claims, and Canadian PMI Report highlight the releases and events.

Key Events will be crucial as markets are primarily focused on US data.

Monday – Sep 02

Key Events on watch

US

• U.S. Markets closed for Labor Day Holiday

Global

• US/Canada Holiday,
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI,
• Swiss Manufacturing PMI.

Other key events

• Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, and Airline One on One Day, 9/3-9/5, in New York

Tuesday – Sep 03

Switzerland CPI Y/Y and M/M Expectations

• Possible 50 bps cut or central bank intervention.
• Expected 1.2% CPI Y/Y and 0.1% M/M measure.
• SNB expected to deliver 52 bps of easing by year end.
• 67% probability of 25 bps cut at September meeting.
• 33% for a 50 bps cut.
• SNB’s Jordan’s dissatisfaction with strong Swiss Franc appreciation.

RBA’s Expected Cash Rate: 4.35%

• RBA maintains hawkish tone due to inflation stickiness.
• Market often anticipates rate hikes.
• Australian Q2 CPI lowered expectations, leading to rate cuts.
• 32 bps of easing expected by year-end.
• Increase due to soft US NFP report.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Expected at 47.8 vs. 46.8

• The ISM release triggered a selloff in risk assets due to a “growth scare.”
• The employment sub-index fell to a new 4-year low before the NFP report, triggering further selling.
• August data suggests weak data in July may have been negatively affected by Hurricane Beryl.
• The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI released two weeks ago showed the second consecutive contraction, with bleak commentary.

Key Events on watch

US

• 7:45 AM ET  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 9:45 AM ET  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Aug-Final
• 10:00 AM ET  ISM Manufacturing PMI for August
• 10:00 AM ET         Construction Spending M/M for July
• 8:55 AM ET           Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET  API Weekly Inventory Data

Global

• Swiss CPI,
• Swiss Q2 GDP,
• Canada Manufacturing PMI,
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Other key events

• Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, and Airline One on One Day, 9/3-9/5, in New York
• Deutsche Bank European TMT Conference, 9/4-9/5, in London
• Goldman Sachs European MedTech & Healthcare Services Conference, 9/4-9/5 in London
• Goldman Sachs 31st Annual Global Retailing Conference, 9/4-9/5, in New York

Wednesday –Sep 04

BoC Expected Rate Cut

• Market expects 75 bps of easing by year end, including September cut.
• BoC expected to cut rates by 25 bps, bringing policy rate to 4.25%.
• Recent CPI report indicates easing in inflation measures.Soft labour market data.

US Job Openings Expectations

• Expected at 8.100M vs 8.184M.
• Slight increase in last report, strong downtrend since 2022.
• Low quit, hiring, and layoff rates due to softening labor market.

Key Events on watch

US

• 7:00 AM  ET  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:30 AM  ET                  International Trade Deficit
• 10:00 AM  ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for July
• 10:00 AM  ET                Factory Orders M/M for July
• 10:00 AM  ET                JOLTs Job Openings for July
• 10:30 AM  ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM  ET                   Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Global

•  Australia Q2 GDP,
• China Caixin Services PMI,
• Eurozone PPI,
• BoC Policy Decision,
• US Job Openings,
• Fed Beige Book.

Thursday – Sep 05

Japanese Average Cash Earnings Expected to Rise

• Expected to be 3.1% Y/Y, up from 4.5%.
• Economic indicators include wages, inflation, services prices, and GDP gap.
• Governor Ueda open to rate hikes if price outlook is achieved.
• Short-term interest rate remains low, indicating potential for neutral rate levels.

US Jobless Claims

US Jobless Claims Weekly Update

• Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
• Continuing Claims show steady rise, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.
• Expected Initial Claims: 230K vs. 231K this week.
• Continuing Claims: 1865K vs. 1868K prior.

US ISM Services PMI Expectations

• Expected at 51.1 vs. 51.4 prior.
• Survey has been inconsistent since 2022.
• Market may focus on employment sub-index ahead of US NFP report.

S&P Global Services PMI

• Uptick in services sector due to Q3 growth divergence between Manufacturing and Services.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 7:30 AM ET      Challenger Job Layoffs for August
• 8:15 AM ET  ADP Private Payroll Employment
• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Q2 US Nonfarm Productivity
• 8:30 AM ET                  Q2 Unit Labor Costs
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI,
• 9:45 AM ET  S&P Global Services PMI, Aug-Final
• 10:00 AM ET  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 10:30 AM ET             Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Global

• Japan Average Cash Earnings
• Swiss Unemployment Rate
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• US ADP
• US Jobless Claims
• Canada Services PMI
• US ISM Services PMI.

Friday –Sep 06

Canadian Labour Market

• Expected 25.0K jobs added in August vs -2.8K in July.
• Unemployment Rate to rise to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior.
• Market unlikely to be affected due to simultaneous release of US NFP.

US non-farm payrolls

• Expected 165K jobs added in August vs. 114K in July.
• Unemployment Rate to decrease to 4.2% vs. 4.3%.
• Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y at 3.7% vs. 3.6%.
• M/M figures at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.
• Last month’s labour market report was weaker than expected, triggering selling in risk assets.
• Possible cause of weaker figures: Hurricane Beryl.
• BLS reports no discernible effect of Hurricane Beryl on data.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Global

• Canada Labour Market report
• US NFP.

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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.