Key Events will be crucial as markets are primarily focused on US data.
Monday – Sep 02
Key Events on watch
US
- U.S. Markets closed for Labor Day Holiday
Global
- US/Canada Holiday,
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI,
- Swiss Manufacturing PMI.
Other key events
- Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, and Airline One on One Day, 9/3-9/5, in New York
Tuesday – Sep 03
Switzerland CPI Y/Y and M/M Expectations
- Possible 50 bps cut or central bank intervention.
- Expected 1.2% CPI Y/Y and 0.1% M/M measure.
- SNB expected to deliver 52 bps of easing by year end.
- 67% probability of 25 bps cut at September meeting.
- 33% for a 50 bps cut.
- SNB’s Jordan’s dissatisfaction with strong Swiss Franc appreciation.
RBA’s Expected Cash Rate: 4.35%
- RBA maintains hawkish tone due to inflation stickiness.
- Market often anticipates rate hikes.
- Australian Q2 CPI lowered expectations, leading to rate cuts.
- 32 bps of easing expected by year-end.
- Increase due to soft US NFP report.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Expected at 47.8 vs. 46.8
- The ISM release triggered a selloff in risk assets due to a “growth scare.”
- The employment sub-index fell to a new 4-year low before the NFP report, triggering further selling.
- August data suggests weak data in July may have been negatively affected by Hurricane Beryl.
- The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI released two weeks ago showed the second consecutive contraction, with bleak commentary.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Aug-Final
- 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for August
- 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending M/M for July
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Global
- Swiss CPI,
- Swiss Q2 GDP,
- Canada Manufacturing PMI,
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Other key events
- Deutsche Bank 14th Annual Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference, and Airline One on One Day, 9/3-9/5, in New York
- Deutsche Bank European TMT Conference, 9/4-9/5, in London
- Goldman Sachs European MedTech & Healthcare Services Conference, 9/4-9/5 in London
- Goldman Sachs 31st Annual Global Retailing Conference, 9/4-9/5, in New York
Wednesday –Sep 04
BoC Expected Rate Cut
- Market expects 75 bps of easing by year end, including September cut.
- BoC expected to cut rates by 25 bps, bringing policy rate to 4.25%.
- Recent CPI report indicates easing in inflation measures.Soft labour market data.
US Job Openings Expectations
- Expected at 8.100M vs 8.184M.
- Slight increase in last report, strong downtrend since 2022.
- Low quit, hiring, and layoff rates due to softening labor market.
Key Events on watch
US
- 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 8:30 AM ET International Trade Deficit
- 10:00 AM ET Durable Goods Orders M/M for July
- 10:00 AM ET Factory Orders M/M for July
- 10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings for July
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Global
- Australia Q2 GDP,
- China Caixin Services PMI,
- Eurozone PPI,
- BoC Policy Decision,
- US Job Openings,
- Fed Beige Book.
Thursday – Sep 05
Japanese Average Cash Earnings Expected to Rise
- Expected to be 3.1% Y/Y, up from 4.5%.
- Economic indicators include wages, inflation, services prices, and GDP gap.
- Governor Ueda open to rate hikes if price outlook is achieved.
- Short-term interest rate remains low, indicating potential for neutral rate levels.
US Jobless Claims
US Jobless Claims Weekly Update
- Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
- Continuing Claims show steady rise, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.
- Expected Initial Claims: 230K vs. 231K this week.
- Continuing Claims: 1865K vs. 1868K prior.
US ISM Services PMI Expectations
- Expected at 51.1 vs. 51.4 prior.
- Survey has been inconsistent since 2022.
- Market may focus on employment sub-index ahead of US NFP report.
S&P Global Services PMI
- Uptick in services sector due to Q3 growth divergence between Manufacturing and Services.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 7:30 AM ET Challenger Job Layoffs for August
- 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll Employment
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims
- 8:30 AM ET Q2 US Nonfarm Productivity
- 8:30 AM ET Q2 Unit Labor Costs
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI,
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Aug-Final
- 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
Global
- Japan Average Cash Earnings
- Swiss Unemployment Rate
- Eurozone Retail Sales
- US ADP
- US Jobless Claims
- Canada Services PMI
- US ISM Services PMI.
Friday –Sep 06
Canadian Labour Market
- Expected 25.0K jobs added in August vs -2.8K in July.
- Unemployment Rate to rise to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior.
- Market unlikely to be affected due to simultaneous release of US NFP.
US non-farm payrolls
- Expected 165K jobs added in August vs. 114K in July.
- Unemployment Rate to decrease to 4.2% vs. 4.3%.
- Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y at 3.7% vs. 3.6%.
- M/M figures at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.
- Last month’s labour market report was weaker than expected, triggering selling in risk assets.
- Possible cause of weaker figures: Hurricane Beryl.
- BLS reports no discernible effect of Hurricane Beryl on data.
Key Events on watch
USA
- 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Global
- Canada Labour Market report
- US NFP.
Must read book about investing – check here
The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.