Key Factors
Key Factors :
Key Factors : CPI releases from the US and China are the highlights
- The outcome of the January Fed interest rate decision will be determined by the US CPI report.
- German economic indices may compel the ECB to reassess its interest rate policy.
- Geopolitics, Beijing’s stimulus talk, and Chinese economic data must all be considered.
Weekly Economic calendar USA JAN 08 to 12th
Monday
- Employment Trends for December
- Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economic Outlook
- Consumer Credit for November
Tuesday
- US NFIB (Dec)
- NFIB Small Business Optimism for December
- ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- International Trade for November
- Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- US Treasury to sell 3-yr notes.
- API Weekly Inventory Data
Wednesday
- US CPI (Dec)
- US Crude Oil Stocks Change
- MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- Wholesale Inventory M/M for November
- Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- US Treasury to sell $37B in 10-year notes.
- Fed’s Williams Gives Speech on 2024 Economic Outlook
Thursday
- US CPI (Dec)
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Continuing Claims
- Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- Cleveland Fed CPI for December
- US Treasury to sell $21B in 30-year notes.
- Federal Budget for December
Friday
- US PPI Final Demand (Dec)
- Canadian Housing Starts (Dec)
- Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for December
- Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y for December
- Core PPI – Ex Food & Energy M/M for December
- Core PPI – Ex Food & Energy Y/Y for December
- Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Regional Economic Conditions Conference
- Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
TOP FACTORS IN WALL STREET
US Consumer Price Index (Dec) – 11/01 – In June, the US CPI rose from a low of 3% to as high as 3.7% in September. However, price pressures have started to ease again in the US economy, with the CPI falling to 3.1% in November. Even though PPI stayed low, it slowed to 0.9% on an annualized basis in November. This made people think that the US Federal Reserve might try to cut rates as soon as March. After how the market reacted to Powell’s words last month, several Fed officials have taken steps to dash those hopes. The US economy is still doing pretty well, but it seems hard to make the case for lowering interest rates soon. The December inflation numbers released this week could either make it more likely that there will be a change in March or push it back to later in the year. Expectations are for the rate to rise to 3.3%. This is because core inflation is higher at 4%, which is still twice the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% inflation. This makes the case for a cut less strong.
UK GDP (Nov) – 12/01:- According to the UK GDP (Nov) report released on December 1, the economy shrank by 0.3% in October, more than canceling out the 0.2% rise seen in September. In October, the economy as a whole had a hard time. Industrial and manufacturing production dropped more than predicted, and the bad weather also hurt construction. Activity in the service sector was also poor, falling by 0.2%. It’s a shame that the rolling 3-month GDP rate was 0%. Even though the numbers were bad, the Bank of England didn’t seem to be planning to change its monetary policy. They said that these monthly numbers change a lot. There shouldn’t be nearly as many bad numbers in November, and things should get a little better.
Sainsbury Q3 24 – 10/01:- From Q3 24 to Q3 10, Sainsbury has strengthened its position as the UK’s number 2 supermarket. A recent poll from Kantar showed that its market share rose to 15.6%. The supermarket’s sales increased by 10.2% in the 12 weeks ending November 26th, according to the study. This week’s pre-Christmas trading numbers are likely to show continued strength, as customers continue to choose food and drink over more expensive items they don’t need. This may have an effect on its Argos numbers. Grocery prices are rising at a rate of 9% right now, so Sainsbury’s has been pushing its Nectar deals very hard, just like Tesco has been doing with Clubcard. This has helped it stop the competition from stores like Aldi and Lidl. People have said that the CMA is looking into these loyalty card deals to make sure they aren’t being used unfairly to trick customers into thinking that prices are cheaper than they really are. Still, Sainsbury shares have been doing well lately, hitting a 22-month high in December after the company raised its full-year profit forecast to the upper end of a range between £670m and £700m. It also raised its retail free cash flow forecast from £500m to £600m.
Tesco Q3 24 – 11/01: The share price of Tesco has also been going up steadily over the last 12 months. The company has lost some market share over that time, but it is still by far the biggest grocery chain in the UK. In October, Tesco also raised its outlook, saying it was confident it could maintain its retail free cash flow at around £1.4bn to £1.8bn while still making the same amount of adjusted operating profit as last year, even though its margins were still under pressure. It looked like every part of the business was doing well. The Booker business helped by increasing sales by 7.5% to £4.7bn. The only part that wasn’t doing as well was the Central European business, which only saw a 0.9% rise in like-for-like sales. The average size of a basket went up by 5.2% to £98, but this is still a lot less than the rate of inflation in food prices, which shows that the store is taking on some of the higher costs. They expect a full-year profit of between £2.6bn and £2.7bn and retail free cash flow of between £1.8bn and £2bn, which is more than the £1.4bn to £1.8bn they had predicted before.
Marks & Spencer Q3 23 – 11/01:– This year has been a big one for the Marks & Spencer share price. After a bad year in 2022, when the shares hit a two-year low, it’s been a great one. This year, the store has gotten its sparkle back, returned to the FTSE100, and made up for all of its losses in 2022. Its shares have also reached their highest level since 2019. The store said that in the first half of the year, profits before taxes went up by 56.2% to £325.6 million, thanks to bigger sales of 10.8% to £6.13 billion. In addition to getting cash flow back to positive, management was able to cut net debt by £370m. In terms of the real sales numbers, food retail once again did very well, with like-for-like sales rising 11.7% and the operating margin getting better. In general merchandise, like-for-like sales rose 5.5%. It was also nice that the payout was brought back, even though it was only 1p. It was still a big step forward. However, management did say that the second half of the year would likely be harder because of higher interest rates, worries about an economy that is slowing down, deflationary forces that affect customer sentiment, and an uncertain geopolitical outlook. This week’s Q3 numbers could be a mixed bag. Food is likely to do well, but general goods could be weak.
JPMorgan Chase Q4 23 – 12/01:– This is JPMorgan Chase Q4 23 from 12/1 – When it comes to both its financial and share price performance, JPMorgan seems to have set itself apart from the rest of the US banking business. In the first two quarters, the bank said it made a lot of money. When Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went out of business, JPMorgan took over the banks’ savings and got over $50bn in new deposits from SVB. The chaos in the rate markets also worked out well because sales went through the roof in both Q1 and Q2. Record sales of $42.04bn, well above the $39.34bn that was expected, and profits of $4.75c a share, or $14.5bn, up 67% from the same time last year. The bank also raised its net interest income forecast for the whole year to $87bn because the difference between the margins on loans and deposits grew even bigger. The bank raised its NII forecast even more in Q3 to $89bn after reporting revenues of $40.69bn, which was a good beat, and profits of $4.33c per share, or $13.2bn. Investment banking and FICC did better than expected in the core business, while stocks did not. The addition of SVB added $1.5bn to NII. Following its Q3 results, the shares fell to their lowest level in four months. However, things have quickly turned around since then, with the shares breaking through the July highs to reach their highest level since January 2022. For Q4, sales are expected to rise to $40.12bn, bringing the total for the year to $162.33bn. For Q4, earnings are expected to rise to $3.63c per share.
Citigroup Q4 23- 12/01 The share prices of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have risen sharply, breaking out of their summer highs and above the levels that existed before the March sell-off. However, the share prices of Citigroup have lagged as CEO Jane Fraser tries to turn around a bank that has had trouble with higher costs and an unwieldy management structure. But there has been a strong recovery since October, when the price of bank shares hit a three-year low. This year, the bank has already cut 5,000 jobs, and more are on the way. Credit losses went up to $1.5bn, which is a 77% increase from Q2 last year. Operating costs went up by 9% to $13.57bn. In Q3, sales were better than expected, coming in at $20.14bn, $900 million more than expected, and profits were $1.63c per share, but some parts of the business were still having trouble. The equities business, like JPMorgan’s, missed the mark with only $918 million in sales. However, FICC sales and trading did better with $3.56 billion. Another interesting thing was that running costs were $13.51bn, which was less than expected and showed a 6% rise compared to Q2. There was a small cloud because the bank said they thought loan losses would go up in Q4. Citigroup changed its prediction for full-year net income from $46bn to $47.5bn, but didn’t change its prediction for full-year sales, which stayed between $78bn and $79bn. Revenues for the fourth quarter are expected to be $18.97bn this week, but earnings are expected to be lower at $0.95 a share. Full-year sales are expected to go up to $79.7bn, but profits are expected to go down to $5.96 a share.
Wells Fargo Q4 23 – 12/01:- Wells Fargo quarterly report for the quarter ending December 1, 2018 In the past three months, Wells Fargo shares have also done well, strongly recovering from their October lows as the US economy continues to surprise with its strength. The shares were worth the most they had been since April 2022 earlier this month. The early this year regional banking problem sent shockwaves through the industry, but confidence seems to be slowly returning. When Wells Fargo reported in the second quarter, the numbers showed that total lending was slowing down. This was because higher interest rates were making US consumers spend less. As expected, total average loans came in below $945.9bn, while provision for credit losses came in at $1.71bn, a big jump from last year’s $580m. This shows that lending was starting to slow down. This was supposed to go up to $1.35bn in Q3, but it only went up to $1.2bn. Revenues for Q3 were $20.86bn, which was more than expected. Profits of $1.48c per share were also better than predicted. Because rates went up, things got better, and net interest income went up to $13.11bn. It looks like people are taking out fewer loans. Wells Fargo said that their loan amounts were going down because the economy was slowing down. At $943.2bn, the average amount of loans was less than what was expected. Total sales for the year are expected to reach $82.5 billion, with $20.29 billion in sales expected for Q4. The company expects to make $1.15 per share in Q4 profits.
Weekly Global Market Calendar (11 Dec-15 Dec)
Monday, JAN 08
- Swiss CPI (Dec)
- EZ Retail Sales (Nov)
- Sentix (Jan)
- Japanese Tokyo CPI (Dec)
- Chinese Trade Balance (Dec)
Tuesday,JAN 09
- EIA STEO;
- German Industrial Output (Nov),
- US NFIB (Dec).
Wednesday, JAN 10
- CNN Republican Debate;
- Norwegian CPI (Dec),
- Chinese CPI/PPI (Dec),
- Chinese M2 (Dec).
Thursday, JAN 11
- US CPI (Dec),
- IJC (w/e 5th Jan),
- Japanese Current Account (Nov).
Friday, JAN 12
- UK GDP (Nov),
- US PPI Final Demand (Dec),
- Canadian Housing Starts (Dec).
Global Events in details date wise
Monday 08th
CPI in Switzerland (Monthly):
Even with the influence of the Rental Rate rise beginning in mid-2023, November’s release was significantly lower than predicted at 1.4% Y/Y (exp. 1.7%). However, according to the SNB’s December predictions (released after the November report), inflation will rise to 1.8% on average during the next two quarters. However, critically, inflation is expected to remain within the 0-2% goal area throughout 2024. The statistics for December will be analyzed to determine if the -0.2% fall in November continues, which was driven by lower fuel, lodging, and holiday pricing, with the majority of this coming from imported products. While the Rental Rate remains the focal focus for those following Swiss CPI, the country’s statistics office only publishes it quarterly, with the next update anticipated for February’s CPI, which is due roughly two weeks before the March SNB policy statement.
Chinese Trade Balance (Mon):
There are currently no forecasts for the December Trade Balance (formerly 35.39 billion USD) or the Imports/Exports breakdown (previously -0.6% and +0.5%, respectively). The data will be analyzed to determine foreign and domestic demand. In terms of previous month indicators, November exports experienced a surprise uptick (in USD terms) of 0.5% Y/Y (exp. -1.1%), breaking a six-month sequence of falls. Despite dropping global trade volumes, the surprise strength in exports was attributed to China’s growing share of the global export market. A transition toward EVs is a key aspect, yet some analysts believe Chinese exporters will encounter problems like as smaller profit margins and limited capacity for further price reductions, potentially affecting export performance in 2024. Imports remained poor last month, raising concerns about Chinese domestic demand.
Wednesday JAN 10
China Inflation (Wednesday):
Inflation printed below forecasts across the board in the previous month’s release, with CPI Y/Y at -0.5% (exp -0.1%), M/M at -0.5% (exp -0.1%), and PPI Y/Y at -3.0% (exp -2.8%). After accounting for seasonality, the fall in consumer price inflation was led by a further decrease in food costs, from -4% to -4.2% Y/Y, and a 0.5% M/M decrease. Energy costs declined by 2.7%M/M, adding to the deflation. In November, core inflation excluding food and fuel remained stable at 0.6%. Analysts cited by SCMP expect Chinese inflation to remain low in the short term, but do not anticipate a deflationary spiral, and believe core inflation will climb in the first half of 2024 as policy support increases, potentially supporting domestic demand and services inflation. SCMP also believes that food and energy price deflation would ease due to altering base effects, with CPI inflation predicted to average 1% in 2024, up from 0.3% so far this year.
Thursday JAN 11
CPI in the United States (Thu):
The headline CPI in the United States is predicted to grow +0.2% month on month in December (formerly +0.1%), while the core rate is expected to rise +0.3% month on month, mirroring the rate reported in November. Traders will be searching for signs of a comeback in pricing pressures, which might undermine the market’s dovish view of the Fed’s rate trajectory (the market presently prices in six 25bps rate cuts in 2024, whereas the FOMC’s December projections envision only three). Analysts at JPM noted that core inflation remains sticky at a level higher than what the Federal Reserve wants, as elevated wages in the services sector continue to add an element of stickiness; after that November data, JPM said that it appeared less likely that the Fed will implement a rate cut in the upcoming March 2024 meeting. The Economist notes in this week’s issue that the recent drop in inflation may be a “false signal”; it notes that while goods prices have declined, services prices have continued to rise, with many rising faster than the pre-pandemic trend, while even house prices saw a rebound in 2023 (as mortgage rates now fall back, it leaves risks that house prices could pick-up even more), while an easing in financial conditions as the Fed cuts rates would also feed into rene “If inflation rebounds the Fed would have little choice but to keep interest rates elevated, perhaps reviving the fears of a recession that have all but vanished,” according to The Economist.
Friday JAN 12
Earnings of US corporations (Friday):
According to FactSet, Q4 earnings growth for the S&P 500 is expected to be +2.4%, marking the index’s second consecutive quarter of Y/Y increase. It also mentions that these forecasts have been declining as we approach Q4 reporting: in September, analysts predicted that the S&P 500 profits growth rate would be +8.1% year on year. FactSet data shows that 72 S&P 500 businesses gave negative EPS guidance ahead of earnings season, while 39 offered positive EPS expectations. Looking ahead, a longer-term Reuters poll reveals that economists anticipate US company earnings to rise faster this year as inflation and interest rates fall, however fears about slower economic growth obscure the picture. According to a Reuters survey, experts anticipate S&P 500 earnings to climb +11.1% this year, after rising +3.1% in 2023. Analysts, on the other hand, expect to see good earnings growth to sustain the S&P 500’s premium equity valuations, which are currently above 19.8x forward 12-month earnings estimates, well above the long-term average of roughly 15.6x. “The market trading where it is at current levels demands earnings to show strong growth next year,” Wells Fargo said in a statement. As a result, analysts will be watching the Q4 earnings report for clues about how increased interest rates are affecting the economy and business profitability. It will also be fascinating to see how analysts’ perspectives change following Q4 reporting, as some forecast a rapid decline in Q1 earnings.
GDP in the United Kingdom (Fri):
GDP is expected to gain +0.1% M/M in November, compared to the 0.3% contraction witnessed in October. Despite the consensus predicting an unchanged outcome, the release indicated reductions in every sector, with the services sector accounting for the majority of the declines. This, paired with the dismal Q3 GDP figure, has fueled speculation about a possible H2 2023 recession. Investec analysts observe that their projection of +0.2% for the November release is “too small to prevent a technical recession,” but such a recession would be “as mild as they come.” The desk cites robust retail sales volume growth, a lack of NHS strike action, and cooler weather, which causes an increase in heating needs, as catalysts for a resurgence in production. However, the impact of increasing borrowing rates on families and businesses may limit the upside. Aside from the impending release, Investec anticipates that weak activity will continue into Q1 before improving later as inflation falls. From a monetary policy standpoint, the next report will likely have little impact on market pricing for the BoE, since the MPC is more concerned about service inflation and wage growth. However, if the announcement is extremely soft, markets may shift existing estimates of the first BoE rate decrease from June to May. Markets are currently pricing in roughly 120bps of cuts by year’s end.
WEEKLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
Monday, JAN 08
Accolade (ACCD), Helen of Troy (HELE), Jefferies (JEF)
Tuesday, JAN 09
Acuity Brands (AYI) Albertsons (ACI) AZZ (AZZ) Neogen (NEOG) PriceSmart (PSMT SMART) Global SGH TD Synnex (SNX) Tilray (TLRY) WD-40 (WDFC)
Wednesday, JAN 10
KB Home (KBH)
Friday, JAN 12
Wells Fargo (WFC) Bank of America (BAC) BlackRock (BLK) BNY Mellon (BK) Citigroup (C) Delta Air Lines (DAL) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) UnitedHealth (UNH)
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