Major economic events
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In the coming week, key macroeconomic statistics from India, the United States, and the United Kingdom will be released. Data on inflation rates in the United States and India will be closely monitored.
In the midst of global market turbulence, Indian indices got off to a shaky start but swiftly recovered to trade in the green. Markets reacted positively to reduced expectations of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, causing the currency and bond yields to rise. According to the HSBC India services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released on January 5, the services sector showed signs of revival, recording a three-month high activity of 59.0.
According to Axis Securities, the Nifty has the ability to prolong its climb and hit 22,000-22,500 levels. “In the near term, any corrections (in Nifty) towards 21,200-20,800 levels should be seen as buying opportunities,” according to the report.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the US labor market report.
In the meantime, Wall Street had a mixed day, while European equity indexes finished higher. The release of Fed minutes, which put doubt on the timetable of rate decreases, sent Asian markets into a tailspin, and stocks are set to end a nine-week winning streak.
Jyoti CNC Automation Limited’s initial public offering (IPO) begins on January 9 and ends for subscription on January 11. The subscription is priced between Rs 315 and Rs 331.
Here’s a list of data items due out next week that investors should keep an eye on.
Indian Weekly Economic Calendar
Monday, Jan 8th
Euro Area Economic Sentiment barometer: The Eurozone economic sentiment barometer crept up to 93.8 in November 2023, up from the corrected 93.5 the previous month. On this day, the data for the month of December will be disclosed.
Tuesday, Jan 9th
Jyoti CNC Automation IPO Launches
Euro Area Unemployment Rate: The eurozone unemployment rate was 6.5% in October 2023, unchanged from the previous month and in line with market expectations. The data for the month of November is awaited.
Wednesday, Jan 10th
Crude oil stocks in the United States declined by 6.911 million barrels in the week ending December 22, 2023, according to data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report. The statistics for the week ending December 29 is still pending.
India Money Supply M3: In the fortnight ended December 11, 2023, India’s M3 money supply increased 11.2 percent year on year to Rs 240336.87 billion. The figures for the fortnight ending December 25, 2023 will be released.
Thursday, Jan 11th
US Core Inflation Rate MoM: Core consumer prices in the United States increased by 0.3% in November, up from 0.2% the previous month. The December data will be released shortly.
US Inflation Rate MoM: Consumer prices in the United States rose 0.1% in November after remaining constant in October. The figures for the month of December are awaiting.
Friday, Jan 12th
UK Monthly GDP MoM: The British economy declined 0.3% in October compared to September 2023, reversing the previous two months’ increases. The November figure is still pending.
UK Manufacturing Production MoM: Manufacturing output in the United Kingdom fell 1.1% month on month in October 2023, following a 0.1% increase the previous month and falling short of estimates of 0%. The November figures are awaited.
Producer Price Inflation in the United States MoM: Producer prices in the United States remained stable in November, following a 0.4% drop the previous month. The data for December is awaited.
India Inflation Rate MoM: In November 2023, consumer prices in India increased by 0.54% month on month, following a 0.65% increase in October. The November data is awaited.
Manufacturing Production in India: Manufacturing Production in India climbed 10.40 percent in October 2023 compared to the same month the previous year. The November year-on-year figure will be revealed.
Industrial production in India increased 11.7% year on year in October 2023, up from an upwardly revised 6.2% increase the previous month and above market estimates of 10%. The figures for the month of November will be announced.
India Bank Loan Growth: Loans from Indian banks increased 20.2% year on year in the two weeks ending December 15, following a 20.8% increase the previous period. The figures for the week ending December 29 are awaited.
India Deposit Growth YoY: Deposits at Indian banks increased 14% year on year in the two weeks ending December 15, up from 13.4% the previous period. The data for the week ending December 29th will be revealed.
Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: India’s foreign exchange reserves grew to $620.440 billion on December 22 from $615.970 billion the previous week. On this day, the numbers for the December 29 fortnight will be released.
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Friday, December 29th
Fiscal Deficit: India’s fiscal deficit – the gap between a government’s total revenue and total spending in a fiscal year – increased to Rs 8.04 trillion in April-October 2023-24, up from Rs 7.58 trillion in the previous fiscal year’s same period. This current deficit figure is 45 percent of the government’s prediction for 2023-24, up from 45.6 percent a year ago. The November number will be released on Friday.
Current Account Deficit Q3: India’s current account deficit narrowed to $9.2 billion in the second quarter of 2023, which is equivalent to 1.1 percent of GDP. It was down from $17.9 billion a year ago, but it above market estimates of a $8.9 billion deficit.
Bank Loan Growth: The value of outstanding loans in India increased by 20.80 percent year on year in the two weeks ending December 1. During the same time span, the value of deposits increased 13.4 percent year on year. Deposit growth in India averaged 14.98 percent from 1998 to 2023, with a peak of 29.30 percent in January 2008 and a low of 2.70 percent in December 2017.
Infrastructure Output: Infrastructure output in India increased by 12.1 percent year on year in October, following an upwardly revised 9.2 percent increase in the previous month. The November figures are awaited.