Key Events in the Week Ahead: Fed decision, UK/Canada CPI, and US Job Report highlight the releases and events.

Key Events shows We’ve finally made it to the first Fed rate cut. Will it be 25 or 50 bps?

Monday – Sep 16

Key Events on watch

US

• 8:30 AM ET                  Empire Manufacturing

Global

•   New Zealand Services PMI.

Tuesday – Sep 17

Canadian CPI Y/Y Expectations

• Expected to be 2.1% vs. 2.5% prior.
• M/M measure expected to be 0.0% vs. 0.4% prior.
• Focus on underlying inflation measures.
• Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y expected to be 2.5% vs. 2.7% prior.
• Median CPI Y/Y expected to be 2.3% vs. 2.4% prior.
• BoC expected to cut rates by 25 bps at last two meetings.
• Potential for bigger rate cuts if growth and inflation are weaker than projected.

US Retail Sales M/M Expectations

• Expected at 0.2% vs 1.0% prior.
• Ex-Autos M/M expected at 0.3% vs 0.4% prior.
• Control Group figure expected at 0.2% vs 0.3% prior.
• Consumer spending stable due to positive real wage growth and resilient labor market.
• Steady pickup in UMich Consumer Sentiment indicating stable/improving financial situation.

Key Events on watch

US

• 7:45 AM ET  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:15 AM ET                  Industrial Production M/M
• 9:15 AM ET                  Capacity Utilization M/M for August
• 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventories M/M for July
• 10:00 AM ET  NAHB Housing Market Index
• 1:00 PM ET  US Treasury to sell $16B in 20-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET   API Weekly Inventory Data

Global

• Eurozone ZEW,
• Canada CPI,
• US Retail Sales,
• US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization,
• US NAHB Housing Market Index.

Other key events

• Cantor Global Healthcare Conference, 9/17-9/19, in New York
• Goldman Sachs European Communacopia Conference, 9/17-9/18, in London
• Salesforce.com (CRM) Dreamforce Conference 9/17-9/19, in San Francisco, CA
• Truist Semiconductors Bus Tour

Wednesday –Sep 18

UK CPI Y/Y Expectations

• Expected 2.2% increase from 2.2% prior.
• M/M measure: 0.3% increase from -0.2% prior.
• Core CPI Y/Y: 3.5% increase from 3.3% prior.
• M/M measure: 0.4% increase from 0.1% prior.
• BoE expected to maintain rates at upcoming meeting..

Economists’ Consensus on Fed Rate Cut

• Economists predict a 25 bps cut by the Fed.
• Market pricing evenly splits between 25 and 50 bps cuts.
• Some suggest starting with a standard 25 bps due to economic stability.
• Central banking focuses on risk management.
• Market pricing provides Fed with opportunity to deliver a 50 bps “insurance cut.”

Key Events on watch

US

• 7:00 AM ET  MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:30 AM ET                  Housing Starts M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET  FOMC Policy meeting; 25bps interest rate cut expected
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC Flows for July

Global

•  UK CPI,
• US Housing Starts and Building Permits,
• BoC Summary of Deliberations,
• FOMC Policy Decision.

Other Key Events:

• Cantor Global Healthcare Conference, 9/17-9/19, in New York
• DA Davidson 23rd Annual Diversified Industrials and Services Conference, 9/18-9/20 in Nashville, TN
• Goldman Sachs European Communacopia Conference, 9/17-9/18, in London
• Salesforce.com (CRM) Dreamforce Conference 9/17-9/19, in San Francisco, CA

Thursday – Sep 19

Australian Labour Market Report:

• Expected 30.0K jobs added in August vs. 58.2K in July.
• Unemployment Rate remains at 4.2%.
• RBA expected to deliver first rate cut in February 2025.
• Probabilities can be extended to December 2024 if data is disappointing.

BoE Expected Rates Unchanged

• BoE to maintain 5.00% rates.
• Strong data: PMIs expansion, slow inflation, lower unemployment rate.
• Market anticipates 25 bps central bank cut in November and December.

US Jobless Claims Weekly Update

• Initial Claims remain within 200K-260K range since 2022.
• Continuing Claims show sustained rise, indicating low layoffs and subdued hiring.
• Expected Initial Claims at 230K this week, compared to 230K prior.
• No consensus on Continuing Claims at the moment, with an increase to 1850K in the prior release.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                  Current Account for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M
• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory

Global

•  New Zealand Q2 GDP,
• Australia Labour Market report,
• BoE Policy Decision,
• US Jobless Claims.

Other Key Events:

• BTIG Financial Services and Fintech Conference, 9/19 in New York
• Cantor Global Healthcare Conference, 9/17-9/19, in New York
• DA Davidson 23rd Annual Diversified Industrials and Services Conference, 9/18-9/20 in Nashville, TN
• Salesforce.com (CRM) Dreamforce Conference 9/17-9/19, in San Francisco, CA

Friday –Sep 20

Japanese Core CPI Y/Y Expected at 2.8%

• Inflation and wage growth are key factors for the BoJ.
• BoJ expected to maintain rates, potentially delivering another rate hike by year-end.

BoJ’s Expected Interest Rates

• BoJ expected to maintain interest rates at 0.25%.
• Markets will monitor the Press Conference for potential rate hike signals.
• BoJ officials aim for a neutral policy stance.
• Market instability concerns are a major concern.
• BoJ may wait for the Fed’s easing cycle before further policy tightening.

PBoC Expected to Maintain LPR Rates

• 1 year LPR rates: 3.35%
• 5 year LPR rates: 3.85%
• Economic data: unfavorable
• High deflationary risks
• Importance of monetary policy easing
• Reduction of real rates from high levels.

Key Events on watch

USA

• 1:00 PM               Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Global

•  Japan CPI,
• PBoC LPR,
• BoJ Policy Decision,
• UK Retail Sales,
• Canada Retail Sales.

Other Key Events:

• DA Davidson 23rd Annual Diversified Industrials and Services Conference, 9/18-9/20 in Nashville, TN

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The US PPI Y/Y is expected to rise by 2.3%, while the M/M measure is expected to decrease by 0.1%. However, the sentiment will be set by the CPI report.